An inference procedure for conflict models

DOI10.1016/0304-4149(91)90066-LMaRDI QIDQ2641051zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors Ray Watson, Paul S. F. Yip

Publication date 1991

Published in Stochastic Processes and their Applications (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4149(91)90066-L

zbMATH Keywords

conflict modelskernel functionkernel type estimatorLinear Law Modelmartingale central limit theorempredictable processrelative mortality ratesSquare Law Modelstopping timeSuicide Attack Modelzero mean martingale

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Martingales with continuous parameter (60G44) Continuous-time Markov processes on general state spaces (60J25) Markov processes: estimation; hidden Markov models (62M05) Applications of statistics (62P99)

Review text

The authors consider a model for conflict between two forces with initial numbers \(n_ 1\) and \(n_ 2\) of combatants. The conflict is assumed to form a continuous time Markov process whose transition probabilities are specified and depend on two parameters \(\lambda_ 1,\lambda_ 2\). The paper is concerned with inference about the ratio \(\theta =\lambda_ 1/\lambda_ 2\), for which an estimator can be derived using martingales in continuous time. By equating a suitable martingale to its mean, the authors derive an estimator \({\tilde \theta}\) depending only on initial and final values of the numbers of combatants. Examples are given for the Linear Law Model, the Square Law Model, and the Suicide Attack Model. Some asymptotic results are obtained for \({\tilde \theta}\); the process is then generalized to the case where \(\lambda_ 1,\lambda_ 2\) are time dependent.

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Cited in

(7)

• Statistical inference for a multitype epidemic model
• Martingale generating functions for Markov chains
• On the measure of conflicts: an argumentation-based framework
• Conflict Analysis for MINLP
• On the issue of mathematical modeling based on the theory of conflict
• An accurate and efficient approach to probabilistic conflict prediction
• A probabilistic approach to analyzing agent relations in three-way conflict analysis based on Bayesian confirmation

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