Andrew Gelman

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List of research outcomes

This list is not complete and representing at the moment only items from zbMATH Open and arXiv. We are working on additional sources - please check back here soon!

PublicationDate of PublicationType
loo2026-07-24Software
Discussion of: ``Statistical exploration of the manifold hypothesis''
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B. Statistical Methodology
2026-05-11Paper
Nested \(\widehat{R}\): assessing the convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo when running many short chains
Bayesian Analysis
2026-02-12Paper
A calibrated BISG for inferring race from surname and geolocation
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A. Statistics in Society
2026-02-12Paper
Hierarchical Bayesian models to mitigate systematic disparities in prediction with proxy outcomes
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A. Statistics in Society
2026-02-12Paper
Russian roulette: the need for stochastic potential outcomes when utilities depend on counterfactuals
Biometrika
2026-01-20Paper
The piranha problem: large effects swimming in a small pond
Notices of the American Mathematical Society
2025-12-02Paper
Incorporating the sampling design in weighting adjustments for panel attrition
Statistics in Medicine
2025-11-10Paper
Book review of: J. Wakefield, Bayesian and frequentist regression methods
Statistics in Medicine
2025-11-07Paper
Causal Quartets: Different Ways to Attain the Same Average Treatment Effect
The American Statistician
2025-07-23Paper
Discussion of: Weighting and prediction in sample surveys
Calcutta Statistical Association Bulletin
2025-07-08Paper
Simulation-based calibration checking for Bayesian computation: the choice of test quantities shapes sensitivity
Bayesian Analysis
2025-05-23Paper
Bayesian inference under cluster sampling with probability proportional to size
Statistics in Medicine
2025-02-18Paper
Visualization in Bayesian workflow
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A. Statistics in Society
2025-01-22Paper
Beyond subjective and objective in statistics
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A. Statistics in Society
2025-01-13Paper
Hierarchical models for estimating state and demographic trends in US death penalty public opinion
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A. Statistics in Society
2025-01-02Paper
Fast methods for posterior inference of two-group normal-normal models
Bayesian Analysis
2024-12-09Paper
Bayesian analysis of tests with unknown specificity and sensitivity
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C. Applied Statistics
2024-11-21Paper
Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics
2024-11-08Paper
Using leave-one-out cross validation (LOO) in a multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) workflow: a cautionary tale
Statistics in Medicine
2024-10-31Paper
Slamming the sham: a Bayesian model for adaptive adjustment with noisy control data
Statistics in Medicine
2024-10-29Paper
Criticism as asynchronous collaboration: an example from social science research
Stat
2024-05-27Paper
Past, present and future of software for Bayesian inference
Statistical Science
2024-05-15Paper
The development of Bayesian statistics
Journal of the Indian Institute of Science
2024-03-05Paper
Bayesian hierarchical stacking: some models are (somewhere) useful
Bayesian Analysis
2024-02-27Paper
Bayesian hierarchical stacking: some models are (somewhere) useful
Bayesian Analysis
2024-02-27Paper
loo2024-02-24Software
Improving multilevel regression and poststratification with structured priors
Bayesian Analysis
2024-02-20Paper
Improving multilevel regression and poststratification with structured priors
Bayesian Analysis
2024-02-20Paper
Active Statistics2024-02-05Paper
What is a standard error?
Journal of Econometrics
2023-11-17Paper
“Two Truths and a Lie” as a Class-Participation Activity
The American Statistician
2023-06-21Paper
What are the Most Important Statistical Ideas of the Past 50 Years?
Journal of the American Statistical Association
2023-03-14Paper
“Not Only Defended But Also Applied”: The Perceived Absurdity of Bayesian Inference
The American Statistician
2023-02-03Paper
Rejoinder: The Anti-Bayesian Moment and Its Passing
The American Statistician
2023-02-03Paper
Rank-normalization, folding, and localization: an improved \(\widehat{R}\) for assessing convergence of MCMC (with Discussion)
Bayesian Analysis
2022-12-23Paper
Prediction scoring of data-driven discoveries for reproducible research
Statistics and Computing
2022-12-09Paper
A Proposal for Informative Default Priors Scaled by the Standard Error of Estimates
The American Statistician
2022-11-18Paper
R-squared for Bayesian Regression Models
The American Statistician
2022-09-20Paper
Large-Scale Replication Projects in Contemporary Psychological Research
The American Statistician
2022-09-20Paper
Abandon Statistical Significance
The American Statistician
2022-09-20Paper
A fast regression via SVD and marginalization
Computational Statistics
2022-05-10Paper
Laplace's theories of cognitive illusions, heuristics and biases
Statistical Science
2021-01-12Paper
Rejoinder: Laplace's theories of cognitive illusions, heuristics and biases
Statistical Science
2021-01-12Paper
Letter to the editors regarding some papers of Dr. Satoshi Kanazawa
Journal of Theoretical Biology
2020-11-05Paper
Expectation propagation as a way of life: a framework for Bayesian inference on partitioned data
(available as arXiv preprint)
2020-10-05Paper
Expectation propagation as a way of life: a framework for Bayesian inference on partitioned data2020-10-05Paper
Statistical graphics for survey weights
Revista Colombiana de Estadística
2020-06-21Paper
A practical guide to measuring social structure using indirectly observed network data
Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice
2019-08-27Paper
R-squared for Bayesian Regression Models
The American Statistician
2019-05-13Paper
Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics
British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology
2019-01-31Paper
Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics
British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology
2019-01-31Paper
Rejoinder to discussion of ‘Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics’
British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology
2019-01-31Paper
Using stacking to average Bayesian predictive distributions (with discussion)
Bayesian Analysis
2018-12-06Paper
Using stacking to average Bayesian predictive distributions (with discussion)
Bayesian Analysis
2018-12-06Paper
Difficulty of selecting among multilevel models using predictive accuracy
Statistics and Its Interface
2018-05-08Paper
Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences
Statistical Science
2018-03-27Paper
Comment: Consensus Monte Carlo using expectation propagation
Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics
2018-03-16Paper
Automatic differentiation variational inference
(available as arXiv preprint)
2017-09-27Paper
Automatic differentiation variational inference2017-09-27Paper
Comment
Journal of the American Statistical Association
2017-08-07Paper
Erratum to: ``Practical Bayesian model evaluation using leave-one-out cross-validation and WAIC''
Statistics and Computing
2017-06-30Paper
Practical Bayesian model evaluation using leave-one-out cross-validation and WAIC
Statistics and Computing
2017-06-30Paper
Teaching statistics. A bag of tricks
Oxford Scholarship Online
2017-03-27Paper
Revised evidence for statistical standards
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
2017-02-16Paper
Practical Bayesian model evaluation using leave-one-out cross-validation and WAIC
Statistics and Computing
2016-08-30Paper
Bayesian nonparametric weighted sampling inference
Bayesian Analysis
2016-04-22Paper
Bayesian nonparametric weighted sampling inference
Bayesian Analysis
2016-04-22Paper
Understanding predictive information criteria for Bayesian models
Statistics and Computing
2016-03-22Paper
How Bayesian analysis cracked the red-state, blue-state problem
Statistical Science
2016-03-08Paper
How Bayesian analysis cracked the red-state, blue-state problem
Statistical Science
2016-03-08Paper
Comment on article by van Dyk et al.
Bayesian Analysis
2016-03-02Paper
Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models (Comment on article by Browne and Draper)
Bayesian Analysis
2016-03-02Paper
Simulation-efficient shortest probability intervals
Statistics and Computing
2016-02-23Paper
Objections to Bayesian statistics
Bayesian Analysis
2016-02-16Paper
Rejoinder: ``Objections to Bayesian statistics''
Bayesian Analysis
2016-02-16Paper
Comment on article by Robert
Bayesian Analysis
2016-02-11Paper
Contributed discussion on article by Müller and Mitra
Bayesian Analysis
2016-02-02Paper
Bayes, Jeffreys, prior distributions and the philosophy of statistics
Statistical Science
2016-01-05Paper
Bayes, Jeffreys, prior distributions and the philosophy of statistics
Statistical Science
2016-01-05Paper
Bayesian statistics then and now
Statistical Science
2016-01-05Paper
Bayesian statistics then and now
Statistical Science
2016-01-05Paper
The no-U-turn sampler: adaptively setting path lengths in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
(available as arXiv preprint)
2014-12-08Paper
The no-U-turn sampler: adaptively setting path lengths in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo2014-12-08Paper
A nondegenerate penalized likelihood estimator for variance parameters in multilevel models
Psychometrika
2014-06-02Paper
Correction: ``Should the democrats move to the left on economic policy?''
The Annals of Applied Statistics
2014-04-04Paper
Interrogating \(p\)-values
Journal of Mathematical Psychology
2014-03-03Paper
Bayesian data analysis.
Chapman & Hall CRC Texts in Statistical Science Series
2014-01-23Paper
Two simple examples for understanding posterior \(p\)-values whose distributions are far from unform
Electronic Journal of Statistics
2013-10-29Paper
Inherent difficulties of non-Bayesian likelihood-based inference, as revealed by an examination of a recent book by Aitkin
Statistics & Risk Modeling
2013-07-25Paper
Struggles with survey weighting and regression modeling
Statistical Science
2012-09-01Paper
Struggles with survey weighting and regression modeling
Statistical Science
2012-09-01Paper
Rejoinder: Struggles with survey weighting and regression modeling
Statistical Science
2012-09-01Paper
Rejoinder: Struggles with survey weighting and regression modeling
Statistical Science
2012-09-01Paper
Comment: Bayesian checking of the second levels of hierarchical models
Statistical Science
2012-09-01Paper
Comment: Bayesian checking of the second levels of hierarchical models
Statistical Science
2012-09-01Paper
What do we know at 7 PM on election night?
Mathematics Magazine
2011-12-07Paper
The no-U-turn sampler: adaptively setting path lengths in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
(available as arXiv preprint)
2011-11-18Paper
The no-U-turn sampler: adaptively setting path lengths in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo2011-11-18Paper
Inference from simulations and monitoring convergence2011-10-05Paper
Bridges between deterministic and probabilistic models for binary data
Statistical Methodology
2011-05-20Paper
"Not only defended but also applied": The perceived absurdity of Bayesian inference
(available as arXiv preprint)
2010-06-28Paper
Adaptively scaling the Metropolis algorithm using expected squared jumped distance2010-02-10Paper
Should the Democrats move to the left on economic policy?
The Annals of Applied Statistics
2009-08-07Paper
An Analysis of the New York City Police Department's “Stop-and-Frisk” Policy in the Context of Claims of Racial Bias
Journal of the American Statistical Association
2009-06-12Paper
Estimating Incumbency Advantage and Its Variation, as an Example of a Before–After Study
Journal of the American Statistical Association
2009-06-12Paper
A weakly informative default prior distribution for logistic and other regression models
The Annals of Applied Statistics
2009-02-10Paper
Bayesian hierarchical classes analysis
Psychometrika
2008-09-24Paper
Visualization in Bayesian data analysis2008-06-11Paper
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 5274817 (Why is no real title available?)2008-05-14Paper
Probabilistic Feature Analysis of Facial Perception of Emotions
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics
2007-09-07Paper
Parameterization and Bayesian Modeling
Journal of the American Statistical Association
2007-08-20Paper
How Many People Do You Know in Prison?
Journal of the American Statistical Association
2007-08-20Paper
Using Image and Curve Registration for Measuring the Goodness of Fit of Spatial and Temporal Predictions
Biometrics
2007-06-11Paper
Bayesian Analysis of Serial Dilution Assays
Biometrics
2007-05-25Paper
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Research outcomes over time


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