Bayesian inference of spatio-temporal changes of arctic sea ice
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Gaussian processes (60G15) Bayesian inference (62F15) Directional data; spatial statistics (62H11) Generalized linear models (logistic models) (62J12) Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12) Hydrology, hydrography, oceanography (86A05)
Abstract: Arctic sea ice extent has drawn increasing interest and alarm from geoscientists, owing to its rapid decline. In this article, we propose a Bayesian spatio-temporal hierarchical statistical model for binary Arctic sea ice data over two decades, where a latent dynamic spatio-temporal Gaussian process is used to model the data-dependence through a logit link function. Our ultimate goal is to perform inference on the dynamic spatial behavior of Arctic sea ice over a period of two decades. Physically motivated covariates are assessed using autologistic diagnostics. Our Bayesian spatio-temporal model shows how parameter uncertainty in such a complex hierarchical model can influence spatio-temporal prediction. The posterior distributions of new summary statistics are proposed to detect the changing patterns of Arctic sea ice over two decades since 1997.
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Cited in
(16)- Equilibrium dynamics of ice streams: a Bayesian statistical analysis
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