Bayesian model selection: application to the adjustment of fundamental physical constants

DOI10.1214/22-AOAS1710MaRDI QIDQ6179119zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Olha Bodnar, Viktor Eriksson

Publication date 16 January 2024

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.01977

zbMATH Keywords

Birge ratio methodinterlaboratory comparison studyintrinsic Bayes factorlocation-scale modelmeta-analysisNewtonian constant of gravitationrandom-effects modelreference prior

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics (62Pxx)

Abstract: The location-scale model is usually present in physics and chemistry in connection to the Birge ratio method for the adjustment of fundamental physical constants such as the Planck constant or the Newtonian constant of gravitation, while the random effects model is the commonly used approach for meta-analysis in medicine. These two competitive models are used to increase the quoted uncertainties of the measurement results to make them consistent. The intrinsic Bayes factor (IBF) is derived for the comparison of the random effects model to the location-scale model, and we answer the question which model performs better for the determination of the Newtonian constant of gravitation. The results of the empirical illustration support the application of the Birge ratio method which is currently used in the adjustment of the CODATA 2018 value for the Newtonian constant of gravitation together with its uncertainty. The results of the simulation study illustrate that the suggested procedure for model selection is decisive even when data consist of a few measurement results.

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Cited in

(4)

• Gibbs sampler approach for objective Bayesian inference in elliptical multivariate meta-analysis random effects model
• Birge ratio method for modeling dark uncertainty in multivariate meta-analyses and inter-laboratory studies
• Objective Bayesian meta-analysis based on generalized marginal multivariate random effects model
• Bayesian multivariate meta-analysis by using the Birge ratio method

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