Classification of asymptotic behavior in a stochastic SIR model
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Monotone systems involving ordinary differential equations (34C12) Qualitative investigation and simulation of ordinary differential equation models (34C60) Asymptotic properties of solutions to ordinary differential equations (34D05) Ordinary differential equations and systems with randomness (34F05) Stochastic ordinary differential equations (aspects of stochastic analysis) (60H10) Population dynamics (general) (92D25) Epidemiology (92D30)
Abstract: This paper investigates asymptotic behavior of a stochastic SIR epidemic model, which is a system with degenerate diffusion. It gives sufficient conditions that are very close to the necessary conditions for the permanence. In addition, this paper develops ergodicity of the underlying system. It is proved that the transition probabilities converge in total variation norm to the invariant measure. Our result gives a precise characterization of the support of the invariant measure. Rates of convergence are also ascertained. It is shown that the rate is not too far from exponential in that the convergence speed is of the form of a polynomial of any degree.
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