Estimating exposure response functions using ambient pollution concentrations

DOI10.1214/08-AOAS177MaRDI QIDQ999660zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors Gavin Shaddick, Duncan Lee, James V. Zidek, Ruth Salway

Publication date 10 February 2009

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/0710.5805

zbMATH Keywords

air pollutionBayesian hierarchical modelsenvironmental epidemiologypersonal exposure simulator

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Numerical analysis or methods applied to Markov chains (65C40) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12)

Abstract: This paper presents an approach to estimating the health effects of an environmental hazard. The approach is general in nature, but is applied here to the case of air pollution. It uses a computer model involving ambient pollution and temperature inputs, to simulate the exposures experienced by individuals in an urban area, whilst incorporating the mechanisms that determine exposures. The output from the model comprises a set of daily exposures for a sample of individuals from the population of interest. These daily exposures are approximated by parametric distributions, so that the predictive exposure distribution of a randomly selected individual can be generated. These distributions are then incorporated into a hierarchical Bayesian framework (with inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation) in order to examine the relationship between short-term changes in exposures and health outcomes, whilst making allowance for long-term trends, seasonality, the effect of potential confounders and the possibility of ecological bias. The paper applies this approach to particulate pollution (PM${}_{10}$) and respiratory mortality counts for seniors in greater London ($geq$65 years) during 1997. Within this substantive epidemiological study, the effects on health of ambient concentrations and (estimated) personal exposures are compared.

Recommendations

• Relating Ambient Particulate Matter Concentration Levels to Mortality Using an Exposure Simulator
• A measurement error model for time-series studies of air pollution and mortality
• Bayesian modelling of environmental risk: Example using a small area ecological study of coronary heart disease mortality in relation to modelled outdoor nitrogen oxide levels
• Spatial modeling of air pollution in studies of its short-term health effects
• Health-exposure modeling and the ecological fallacy

Cites work

• A Statistical Framework for Ecological and Aggregate Studies
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• Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models (Comment on article by Browne and Draper)

Cited in

(20)

• An informative Bayesian structural equation model to assess source-specific health effects of air pollution
• A probabilistic approach to exposure risk assessment
• Assessing the association between environmental exposures and human health
• Air pollution and health in Scotland: a multicity study
• Relating Ambient Particulate Matter Concentration Levels to Mortality Using an Exposure Simulator
• Spatial modeling of air pollution in studies of its short-term health effects
• A causal exposure response function with local adjustment for confounding: estimating health effects of exposure to low levels of ambient fine particulate matter
• Testing ambient pollution instruments with heterogeneous agents
• Bayesian Distributed Lag Models: Estimating Effects of Particulate Matter Air Pollution on Daily Mortality
• A measurement error model for time-series studies of air pollution and mortality
• Estimating exposure response functions using ambient pollution concentrations
• A statistical modeling approach for air quality data based on physical dispersion processes and its application to ozone modeling
• Health-exposure modeling and the ecological fallacy
• Accounting for temperature when modeling population health risk due to air pollution
• Individual Toluene Exposure in Rotary Printing: Increasing Accuracy of Estimation by Linear Models Based on Protocols of Daily Activity and Other Measures
• Modeling hourly ozone concentration fields
• Special section on statistics in the atmospheric sciences
• Quantifying personal exposure to air pollution from smartphone-based location data
• Estimating the acute health effects of coarse particulate matter accounting for exposure measurement error
• Statistical Methods to Evaluate Health Effects Associated with Major Sources of Air Pollution: A Case-Study of Breathing Patterns During Exposure to Concentrated Boston Air particles

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• BayesDA

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