Estimation of HIV burden through Bayesian evidence synthesis

DOI10.1214/13-STS428MaRDI QIDQ254353zbMATH OpenWikidataFDO

Authors Daniela De Angelis, Anne M. Presanis, Stefano Conti, A. E. Ades

Publication date 8 March 2016

Published in Statistical Science (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.4679, https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1399645723

zbMATH Keywords

Bayesian inferencedisease burdenevidence synthesisgraphical modelHIV

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Applications of statistics to social sciences (62P25) Medical applications (general) (92C50)

Abstract: Planning, implementation and evaluation of public health policies to control the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic require regular monitoring of disease burden. This includes the proportion living with HIV, whether diagnosed or not, and the rate of new infections in the general population and in specific risk groups and regions. Estimation of these quantities is not straightforward: data informing them directly are not typically available, but a wealth of indirect information from surveillance systems and ad hoc studies can inform functions of these quantities. In this paper we show how the estimation problem can be successfully solved through a Bayesian evidence synthesis approach, relaxing the focus on "best available" data to which classical methods are typically restricted. This more comprehensive and flexible use of evidence has led to the adoption of our proposed approach as the official method to estimate HIV prevalence in the United Kingdom since 2005.

Recommendations

• Bayesian evidence synthesis for a transmission dynamic model for HIV among men who have sex with men
• Modeling of the HIV infection epidemic in the Netherlands: a multi-parameter evidence synthesis approach
• Bayesian Projection of the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome Epidemic
• A likelihood estimation of HIV incidence incorporating information on past prevalence
• Estimating the sizes of populations at risk of HIV infection from multiple data sources using a Bayesian hierarchical model

Cites work

• Bayesian evidence synthesis for a transmission dynamic model for HIV among men who have sex with men
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 1134987 (Why is no real title available?)
• Modeling of the HIV infection epidemic in the Netherlands: a multi-parameter evidence synthesis approach
• Sampling and Bayes' Inference in Scientific Modelling and Robustness

Cited in

(8)

• A numerically stable algorithm for integrating Bayesian models using Markov melding
• Synthesising evidence to estimate pandemic (2009) A/H1N1 influenza severity in 2009--2011
• Bayesian evidence synthesis for a transmission dynamic model for HIV among men who have sex with men
• Estimating prevalence using indirect information and Bayesian evidence synthesis
• Value of information: sensitivity analysis and research design in Bayesian evidence synthesis
• Evidence synthesis for stochastic epidemic models
• A review of methods for research synthesis
• Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding

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• WinBUGS

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