Fine-tuning in the context of Bayesian theory testing

DOI10.1007/S13194-017-0184-2MaRDI QIDQ1616153zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Luke A. Barnes

Publication date 1 November 2018

Published in European Journal for Philosophy of Science (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.03965

zbMATH Keywords

Bayesianprobabilityfine-tuning

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Foundations and philosophical topics in statistics (62A01) Applications of statistics to physics (62P35)

Abstract: Fine-tuning in physics and cosmology is often used as evidence that a theory is incomplete. For example, the parameters of the standard model of particle physics are "unnaturally" small (in various technical senses), which has driven much of the search for physics beyond the standard model. Of particular interest is the fine-tuning of the universe for life, which suggests that our universe's ability to create physical life forms is improbable and in need of explanation, perhaps by a multiverse. This claim has been challenged on the grounds that the relevant probability measure cannot be justified because it cannot be normalized, and so small probabilities cannot be inferred. We show how fine-tuning can be formulated within the context of Bayesian theory testing (or emph{model selection}) in the physical sciences. The normalizability problem is seen to be a general problem for testing any theory with free parameters, and not a unique problem for fine-tuning. Physical theories in fact avoid such problems in one of two ways. Dimensional parameters are bounded by the Planck scale, avoiding troublesome infinities, and we are not compelled to assume that dimensionless parameters are distributed uniformly, which avoids non-normalizability.

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Cited in

(10)

• The inevitability of fine tuning in a complex universe
• Finely tuned models sacrifice explanatory depth
• Which fine-tuning arguments are fine?
• Sometimes size does not matter
• Problems with the argument from fine tuning
• Is cosmological tuning fine or coarse?
• On the empirical inaccessibility of higher-level modality and its significance for cosmological fine-tuning
• Finetuned cancellations and improbable theories
• A new fine-tuning argument for the multiverse
• Possible explanations for fine-tuning of the universe

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