Independence and Bayesian updating methods

DOI10.1016/0004-3702(86)90019-6MaRDI QIDQ1105391zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Rodney W. Johnson

Publication date 1986

Published in Artificial Intelligence (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1304.3421

zbMATH Keywords

independenceBayesian updatingprobabilities of hypothesesrule-based inference systems

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Learning and adaptive systems in artificial intelligence (68T05)

Abstract: Duda, Hart, and Nilsson have set forth a method for rule-based inference systems to use in updating the probabilities of hypotheses on the basis of multiple items of new evidence. Pednault, Zucker, and Muresan claimed to give conditions under which independence assumptions made by Duda et al. preclude updating-that is, prevent the evidence from altering the probabilities of the hypotheses. Glymour refutes Pednault et al.'s claim with a counterexample of a rather special form (one item of evidence is incompatible with all but one of the hypotheses); he raises, but leaves open, the question whether their result would be true with an added assumption to rule out such special cases. We show that their result does not hold even with the added assumption, but that it can nevertheless be largely salvaged. Namely, under the conditions assumed by Pednault et al., at most one of the items of evidence can alter the probability of any given hypothesis; thus, although updating is possible, multiple updating for any of the hypotheses is precluded.

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Cites work

• Independence assumptions and Bayesian updating
• On the Correctness of Some Sequential Classification Schemes in Pattern Recognition
• On the independence assumption underlying subjective Bayesian updating

Cited in

(6)

• Dynamics of Bayesian updating with dependent data and misspecified models
• Independence assumptions and Bayesian updating
• Updating, undermining, and independence
• Expert system models for inference with imperfect knowledge: A comparative study
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 4020180 (Why is no real title available?)
• Bayesian updating: on the interpretation of exhaustive and mutually exclusive assumptions.

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