A waiting time problem arising from the study of multi-stage carcinogenesis (Q1024901)

The authors propose a mathematical model for cancer development. They consider a (cell) population of fixed size \(N\) and assume that the population evolves according to the Moran model, that is, each individual of the population lives an exponentially distributed time span with mean \(1\) and upon its death is replaced by a new individual, the parent of which is chosen uniformly at random among the \(N\) individuals. Each individual has a type \(j \in \{0,\dots,m\}\) and all individuals initially have type \(0\). Newborn individuals inherit their type from their parent. Additionally, during their life times, individuals of type \(j-1\) may mutate to type \(j\), \(j=1,\dots,m\). \(\tau_m\) is the first time there is an individual of type \(m\). The authors study the asymptotic distribution of \(\tau_m\) when \(m \geq 2\) as \(N \to \infty\) using a broad variety of different methods.