An upper bound on the expected completion time of PERT networks (Q1060947)

The problem of determining an upper bound on the expected project completion time, described by the PERT network, is considered. It is assumed that activity durations are independent random variables with given means. The exact forms of probability distributions do not have to be known; however, their cumulative distribution functions are expected to belong to the so-called NBUE class. Very simple algorithms for deriving this bound are presented. The computations can even be performed manually for more involved networks. Our approach producing a pessimistic evaluation of the expected value of the project duration, extends considerably the information obtained through the use of the classical PERT that always underestimates this value. The results are illustrated by a simple example, and errors of approximations are discussed.