Strange attractors in a dynamical system inspired by a seasonally forced SIR model (Q2140107)

This paper studies strange attractors in a dynamical system inspired by a seasonally forced SIR model. The system is a multi-parameter dynamical system with the basic reproduction number less than 1 for which the infectious component does not vanish. The evolution of the compartments \(S\) susceptible, \(I\) infected and \(R\) recovered follow \(\dot{S}=S(A-S)-\beta_{\gamma}(t)IS\), \(\dot{I}=\beta_{\gamma}(t)IS-(\mu+d)I-rI/(a+I)\) and \(\dot{R}=rI/(a+I)-\mu R\), where \(A\) is the carrying capacity of susceptibles in the absence of disease, \(\gamma\) is the amplitude of seasonal variation, \(\mu\) is the natural death rate of infected and recovered population, \(d\) is the death rate of infected individuals due to the disease, \(r\) is the cure rate, \(a\) measures the effects of a delay in the response treatment, and \(\beta_0\) is the transmission rate of the disease when \(\gamma=0\). Here, \(\gamma\) is the deformation of the transmission due to seasonality. It is shown that under some seasonal periodic forcing with high frequency, strange attractors persist in its flow. The sensitivity of the basic reproduction number with regards to the parameters of the model is studied. Endemic equilibria with bifurcation phenomenon have also been analyzed.