Strange attractors in a dynamical system inspired by a seasonally forced SIR model

DOI10.1016/J.PHYSD.2022.133268MaRDI QIDQ2140107zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Yanyan Li

Publication date 20 May 2022

Published in Physica D (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.13160

zbMATH Keywords

backward bifurcationbasic reproduction numberobservable chaosseasonalitySIR modelstrange attractors

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Strange attractors, chaotic dynamics of systems with hyperbolic behavior (37D45) Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: We analyze a multiparameter periodically-forced dynamical system inspired in the SIR endemic model. We show that the condition on the emph{basic reproduction number} $mathcal{R}_0<1$ is not sufficient to guarantee the elimination of emph{Infectious} individuals due to a emph{backward bifurcation}. Using the theory of rank-one attractors, for an open subset in the space of parameters where $mathcal{R}_0<1$, the flow exhibits emph{persistent strange attractors}. These sets are not confined to a tubular neighbourhood in the phase space, are numerically observable and shadow the ghost of a two-dimensional invariant torus. Although numerical experiments have already suggested that periodically-forced biological models may exhibit observable chaos, a rigorous proof was not given before. Our results agree well with the empirical belief that intense seasonality induces chaos. This work provides a preliminary investigation of the interplay between seasonality, deterministic dynamics and the prevalence of strange attractors in a nonlinear forced system inspired by biology.

Review text

This paper studies strange attractors in a dynamical system inspired by a seasonally forced SIR model. The system is a multi-parameter dynamical system with the basic reproduction number less than 1 for which the infectious component does not vanish. The evolution of the compartments \(S\) susceptible, \(I\) infected and \(R\) recovered follow \(\dot{S}=S(A-S)-\beta_{\gamma}(t)IS\), \(\dot{I}=\beta_{\gamma}(t)IS-(\mu+d)I-rI/(a+I)\) and \(\dot{R}=rI/(a+I)-\mu R\), where \(A\) is the carrying capacity of susceptibles in the absence of disease, \(\gamma\) is the amplitude of seasonal variation, \(\mu\) is the natural death rate of infected and recovered population, \(d\) is the death rate of infected individuals due to the disease, \(r\) is the cure rate, \(a\) measures the effects of a delay in the response treatment, and \(\beta_0\) is the transmission rate of the disease when \(\gamma=0\). Here, \(\gamma\) is the deformation of the transmission due to seasonality. It is shown that under some seasonal periodic forcing with high frequency, strange attractors persist in its flow. The sensitivity of the basic reproduction number with regards to the parameters of the model is studied. Endemic equilibria with bifurcation phenomenon have also been analyzed.

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Cited in

(10)

• Chaotic dynamics in the seasonally forced SIR epidemic model
• Abundance of strange attractors near an attracting periodically perturbed network
• SIR model with vaccination: bifurcation analysis
• Impact of periodic vaccination in SEIRS seasonal model
• Pulse vaccination in a SIR model: global dynamics, bifurcations and seasonality
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• Autonomous and non-autonomous dynamics of an SIRS model with convex incidence rate
• A rubella epidemic model with seasonality
• High frequency forcing of an attracting heteroclinic cycle
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