The average size of the 2-Selmer group of a family of non-hyperelliptic curves of genus 3 (Q2166205)

Let \(X\) be a smooth, projective, geometrically connected genus-3 curve over \(\mathbb{Q}\) that is not hyperelliptic and \(P \in X(\mathbb{Q})\) be a marked rational point. We say \(P\) is a hyperflex if \(4P\) is a canonical divisor. Any pair \((X, P)\) with \(P\) a hyperflex is isomorphic to a pair \((C_b, P_{\infty})\), where \( b = (p_2,\ldots, p_{12}) \in \mathbb{Q}^6\) and \(C_b\) is the projective completion of the plane curve defined by the equation \[ y^3 = x^4 + (p_2x^2 + p_5x + p_8)y + p_6x^2 + p_9x + p_{12}. \] Further, \(P_{\infty}\) is the is the unique point at infinity of \(C_b\). Pairs \((C_b, P_{\infty})\) are isomorphic if and only if the coefficients are related by a substitution \((p_i) \mapsto (\lambda^i p_i)\) for some \(\lambda \in \mathbb{Q}^*\). An equation of the above form is called minimal if \(p_i\in \mathbb{Z}\), \(p_5 > 0\), or \(p_5 = 0\) and \(p_9 \geq 0\), and there exists no prime \(q\) such that \(q^i|p_i\) \((i=2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 12)\). Then any pair \((X, P)\) arises from a unique minimal equation. We denote by \(\mathcal{E}\) the subset \((p_2, p_5, p_6, p_8, p_9, p_{12})\in \mathbb{Z}^6\) such that the associated equation defines a smooth curve \(C_b\), and by \(\mathcal{E}_{\min}\) the subset for which the equation is minimal. For \(b \in E\), the height of \(b\) is defined to be the quantity \(ht(b) := \max_i|p_i(b)|^{72/i}.\) Let \(J_b\) be the Jacobian variety of \(C_b\), \(\mathrm{Sel}_{2} J_b\) the 2-Selmer group of \(J_b\), and \(\mathcal{F}\) be either \(\mathcal{E}_{\min}\) or a subset of \(\mathcal{E}\) defined by finitely many congruence conditions. In this paper, it is proved that \[ \limsup_{a\rightarrow \infty} \frac{\sum_{b\in \mathcal{F}, ht(b)< a}\#\mathrm{Sel}_{2} J_b}{\#\{b\in \mathcal{F}/\ ht(b) < a\}}\leq 3. \] The proof is based on the interpretation of 2-Selmer elements as integral orbits of a representation associated with a stable \(\mathbb{Z}/2\mathbb{Z}\)-grading on the Lie algebra of type \(E_6\) and the use of Bhargava' s orbit-counting techniques. Two interesting consequences of this result is that the average rank \(rk(J_b)\) for \(b \in \mathcal{F}\) is \(\leq 3/2\), and the 61\% of curves \(C_b\) for \( b \in \mathcal{E}\) have at most 26 rational points. Furthermore, the above result is used in order to prove that \[ \liminf \frac{\#\{b\in \mathcal{E}/\ ht(b) < a,\ C_b(\mathbb{Q})=\{P_{\infty}\}\}}{\#\{b\in \mathcal{E}/\ ht(b)<a\}} > 0. \]