Generalizations of the `linear chain trick': incorporating more flexible dwell time distributions into mean field ODE models (Q2330636)

The authors generalize the Linear Chain Trick (LCT) to provide modelers more flexibility to incorporate appropriate dwell time assumptions into mean field ODEs, and clarify connections between individual-level stochastic model assumptions and the structure of corresponding mean field ODEs. Analytical results are provided, which enable modelers more efficiently to construct ODE models using the LCT or related extensions. Specifically, the authors provide: (1) novel LCT extensions for various scenarios found in applications, including conditional dwell time distributions; (2) formulations of these LCT extensions that bypass the need to derive ODEs from integral equations; and (3) a novel Generalized Linear Chain Trick (GLCT) framework that extends the LCT to a much broader set of possible dwell time distribution assumptions, including the flexible phase-type distributions.