Sato-Tate, cyclicity, and divisibility statistics on average for elliptic curves of small height (Q2655761)

Let \(\mathbf{E}_{a,b}\) denote the elliptic curve \(Y^2 = X^3 +aX+b\) for integers \(a\) and \(b\). In this article, the authors prove asymptotic formulae for the number of primes \(p\leq x\) such that the reduction of this curve modulo \(p\) satisfies certain natural properties, on average over the set \(\{ a,b : |a| \leq A, \,|b| \leq B \}\) for bounds \(A\) and \(B\) which are small relative to \(x\). The first property is related to the Sato-Tate conjecture: quoting \S 1 of the paper, we define the angle \(\psi_{a,b}(p) \in [0,\pi]\) by \[ p+1- \# \mathbf{E}_{a,b}(\mathbb{F}_p) \,=\, 2 \sqrt{p} \cos \psi_{a,b}(p) \] and denote by \(\Pi^{\mathrm{ST}}_{a,b}(\alpha,\beta;x)\) the number of primes \(p \leq x\) such that \(\alpha \leq \psi_{a,b}(p) \leq \beta\). The Sato-Tate conjecture provides an asymptotic for \(\Pi^{\mathrm{ST}}_{a,b}(\alpha,\beta;x)\) as \(x\) tends to infinity; this conjecture has now been proved in \textit{R. Taylor} [Publ. Math., Inst. Hautes Étud. Sci. 108, 183--239 (2008; Zbl 1169.11021)] but Taylor's work does not imply anything about the average \[ \sum_{|a|\leq A} \; \sum_{|b| \leq B} \; \Pi^{\mathrm{ST}}_{a,b} (\alpha,\beta;x). \] The authors prove an estimate for this, and also for the averages where \(\Pi^{\mathrm{ST}}_{a,b}(\alpha,\beta;x)\) is replaced by \(\Pi^{\mathrm{C}}_{a,b}(x)\) (the number of primes \(p\leq x\) for which \(\mathbf{E}_{a,b}(\mathbb{F}_p)\) is cyclic) and by \(\Pi^{\mathrm{D}}_{a,b}(m;x)\) (the number of primes \(p\leq x\) for which \(\# \mathbf{E}_{a,b}(\mathbb{F}_p)\) is divisible by a fixed integer \(m\)). The assumption \(A,B \geq x^\epsilon\) and \(AB \geq x^{1+\epsilon}\) is required to get non-trivial results. In \S1 of the paper, the authors give some background to the problems (in particular the Lang-Trotter conjecture) and discuss related articles. In \S2 preliminary results are proved: a key method is to use bounds for multiplicative character sums to study the distribution of pairs \(\{ (ru^4,su^6) : u \in \mathbb{F}_p\}\) which are related to isomorphism classes of the curves \(\mathbf{E}_{a,b}\) over \(\mathbb{F}_p\). In \S3 the main results of the paper are proved. Theorem 13 gives a bound for the quantity \(M_p(\mathcal{S},A,B)\) (the number of curves \(\mathbf{E}_{a,b}\) with \(|a| \leq A\) and \(|b| \leq B\), such that the reduction modulo \(p\) of the pair \((a,b)\) lies in \(\mathcal{S}\)) for an arbitrary subset \(\mathcal{S}\) of \(\mathbb{F}_p\times \mathbb{F}_p\). Combining this theorem with estimates quoted from the literature, the authors prove asymptotic formulae for the desired averages (Theorems 17, 18 and 19). In \S4, the authors mention the special case \(p \equiv -1 \mod 12\); here the range of \(A\) and \(B\) on which the method gives non-trivial results can be widened. In \S5, applications of the arguments to other problems are discussed (with some improvements to existing results).