The interplay of two mutations in a population of varying size: A stochastic eco-evolutionary model for clonal interference (Q511122)

In this paper, the authors aim to provide and study a simple stochastic model taking into account the wide variety of competitive interactions which can be found in nature. It is shown that type-dependent competitive interactions are able to generate ecological patterns which are observed but not explained by conventional models. In particular, the classical assumption of transitivity between the different mutations is changed and some classical preconceived ideas about clonal interference are questioned. For simulating precisely the interactions between individuals, a model was introduced by \textit{N. Champagnat} in [Stochastic Processes Appl. 116, No. 8, 1127--1160 (2006; Zbl 1100.60055)], where the author only considered the occurrence of one mutation. The population dynamics explored in this article is a multitype birth and death Markov process with density-dependent competition. Individuals are characterized by ecological parameters depending on their genetic type and governing their growth rate and competition with other individuals. As a consequence, the ``fitness'' of an individual depends on the population state and is not an intrinsic characteristic of individuals. Thus the carrying capacity of the underlying environment by a scaling parameter \(K \in \mathbb N\) and state results in the limit for large \(K\) are reflected. This work is the first one to study the impact of type-dependent competition on clonal interference. By using couplings with birth and death processes without competition and comparison with deterministic systems, one can provide a complete description of the possible population dynamics when two mutations are in competition. A large variety of behaviours can be observed, but that in all cases, the dynamics consists in an alternation of long stochastic phases (with a duration of order \(\log K\)) and short phases (with a duration of order 1) which can be approximated by deterministic processes. In the case of rock-paper-scissors dynamics, a non-bounded number of such alternations appears. The deterministic approximations are either 2-dimensional or 3-dimensional Lotka-Volterra competitive systems. Unlike the 2-dimensional case, where the final state is completely determined by the signs of the invasion fitnesses, the longtime behavior of a 3-dimensional competitive Lotka-Volterra system can depend on the initial state. Moreover, the flows of 3-dimensional Lotka-Volterra systems do not necessarily converge to a stable equilibrium but can exhibit cyclical behaviors. The time of appearance of the second mutation is crucial to determine the final population state. Finally, the authors provide a complete description of the possible population dynamics (Appendix B).