Arithmetic statistics of Prym surfaces (Q6041812)

For an isogeny \(\lambda: A\to B\) of abelian varieties over \(\mathbb{Q}\), the \(\lambda\)-Selmer group of \(A\) is defined by \(\mathrm{Sel}_{\lambda} A:=\mathrm{ker}(H^1(\mathbb{Q},A[\lambda])\to \prod_{\upsilon} H^1(\mathbb{Q}_{\upsilon}, A))\) where \(A[\lambda]\) is the kernel of \(\lambda\), the cohomology groups are Galois cohomology and the product runs over all places \({\upsilon}\) over \(\mathbb{Q}\). Let \(\mathcal{E}\subset\mathbb{Z}^4\) be the subset of \(4\)-tuples of integers \(b=(p_2,p_6,p_8,p_{12})\) such that the projective closure of the equation \(y^4+p_2xy^2+p_6y^2=x^3+p_8x+p_{12}\) defines a smooth genus \(3\) curve \(C_b\) over \(\mathbb{Q}\). The quotient of \(C_b\) by the involution \((x,y)\mapsto (x,-y)\) defines an elliptic curve \(E_b: y^2+p_2xy+p_6y=x^3+p_8x+p_{12}\) over \(\mathbb{Q}\). Let \(J_b\) be the Jacobian variety of \(C_b\) and let \(P_b\) be the kernel of the norm map \(f_*: J_b\to E_b\). Then \(P_b\) is an abelian surface with a polarization \(\rho: P_b\to P_v^{\vee}\) of type \((1,2)\). \(P_b\) is a Prym variety associated to the double cover \(C_b\to E_b\). For \(b\in\mathcal{E}\), define the height of \(b\) as \(\mathrm{ht}(b)=\max|p_i(b)|^{1/i}\). For every \(X\in\mathbb{R}_{>0}\), the set \(\{b\in\mathcal{E}| \mathrm{ht}(b)<X\}\) is known to be finite. The main results of this paper are formulated in the following theorems. Theorem 1. The average size of \(\mathrm{Sel}_{\rho} P_b\) for \(b\in\mathcal{E}\), when ordered bu height, equals \(3\). Theorem 2. The average size of \(\mathrm{Sel}_2 P_b\) for \(b\in\mathcal{E}\), when ordered by height, is bounded above by \(5\). (Conjecturally it is equal to \(5\).) Corollary 1. The average rank of \(P_b\) for \(b\in\mathcal{E}\), when ordered by height, is bounded above by \(5/2\). Corollary 2. The average rank of \(J_b\) for \(b\in\mathcal{E}\), when ordered by height, is \(5/2+0.885=3.385.\) The proof is a combination of an analysis of the Lie algebra embedding \(F_4\subset E_6\), invariant theory, a classical geometric construction due to Pantazis, a study of Néron component group of Prym surfaces and Bhargava's orbit-counting techniques. The heart of the matter is, for each of the isogenies \(\rho\) and \([2]\), to find the right representation of a reductive group over \(\mathbb{Q}\) whose integral orbits parametrize Selmer elements and then count those orbits using the geometry-of-numbers techniques of Bhargava.