Bifurcation and chaos in S-I-S epidemic model (Q609423)

By assuming that newborns from infective parents have a temporary immunity period and a disease incubation period in a randomly fluctuating environment, two delays \(\tau_1\), \(\tau_2\) and two white noises are introduced into the SIS model. The authors discuss the existence and stability of the trivial equilibrium \(E_0\) and the endemic equilibrium \(E_2\) if \(\tau_1=\tau_2=0\) and there are no random factors, and the Hopf bifurcation and stability analysis of the Hopf bifurcation if \(\tau_1=\tau_2=\tau\) and there are no random factors. They show that there is no change of the stability for \(E_0\) by introducing delays. They also evaluate the population variances (or mean-square fluctuations) when there are delays and random factors in order to characterize the stochastic stability of the system. Simulation results illustrate that delays facilitate smaller final infective population sizes, even if endemicity is still maintained.