The HPV vaccination strategy: could male vaccination have a significant impact? (Q612808)

Summary: We investigate the potential success of the human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccine, taking into consideration possible waning immunity and the influence of behavioural parameters. We use a compartmental, population-level ordinary differential equation (ODE) model. We find the effective reproductive value for HPV, \(R_{0}^{e}\), which measures the threshold for infection outbreak in a population that is not entirely susceptible, together with infection prevalence. We study the effects of different parameters on both of these quantities. The results show that the waning immunity plays a large part in allowing infection to persist. The proportion of the population not sexually active when vaccination occurs affects \(R_{0}^{e}\), as does the rate at which individuals become sexually active. In several cases, infection persists as a result of an infection reservoir in the male cohort. To explore this further, we introduce male vaccination and find the conditions for which vaccination of males could be considered appropriate.