Schramm's proof of Watts' formula (Q651006)

It is known that \textit{J. Dubédat} [J. Stat. Phys. 123, No. 6, 1183--1218 (2006; Zbl 1113.82064)] proved rigorously Watts' formula for the probability in percolation that there is both a left-right and an up-down crossing. The present paper deals another simpler proof of the said formula, which was suggested by Oded Schramm. Dubedat proof consisted of 3 steps, the present proof repeats steps 1 and 2, but the step 3 is different. The proof is built on Cardy's formula in a conceptually appealing way: The triple derivative of Cardy's formula is the sum of two multi-arm densities. Note that the relative sizes of the two terms are computed with Girsanov conditioning. The triple integral of one of the terms is equivalent to Watts' formula. Calculations are made by Mathematica code.