Fibrations with few rational points (Q730364)

Let \(X\) be a proper smooth algebraic variety over a number field \(k\), with a dominant morphism \(\pi:X\rightarrow\mathbb{P}_k^n\) having geometrically integral generic fibre. One is interested in counting how often the fibre above \(x\in\mathbb{P}_k^n\) has a \(k\)-rational point. In the present paper one looks instead at fibres where there is an adélic point, defining \[ N_{\text{loc}}(B):=\#\{x\in\mathbb{P}^n_k: H(x)\leq B,\,x\in\pi(X(\mathbb{A}_k))\}. \] The main result of the paper is a criterion giving a necessary and sufficient condition for one to have \(\rho(B)\rightarrow 0\), with \[ \rho(B):=\frac{N_{\text{loc}}(B)}{\#\{x\in\mathbb{P}^n_k: H(x)\leq B\}}. \] Indeed it is shown how to compute a non-negative rational number \(\Delta(\pi)\) such that \[ \rho(B)\ll (\log B)^{-\Delta(\pi)}. \] It is conjectured that this is sharp under suitable conditions. We will not give the definition of \(\Delta(\pi)\) here, but we mention one corollary: In the situation described, if the fibre over some codimension one point of \(\mathbb{P}^n_k\) is irreducible but not geometrically irreducible, then \(\Delta(\pi)\) must be strictly positive, so that almost all fibres have no adélic point. In the other direction it is also shown that if \(\Delta(\pi)=0\), then \(\rho(B)\) tends to a positive limit, given as a product of local factors. Thus almost all fibres have no adélic point exactly when \(\Delta(\pi)>0\). The proofs develop ideas from \textit{D. Loughran} [``The number of varieties in a family which contain a rational point'', Preprint, \url{arXiv:1310.6219}] and \textit{M. J. Bright} et al. [Compos. Math. 152, No. 7, 1435--1475 (2016; Zbl 1348.14067)].