Modeling epidemic outbreaks in geographical regions: seasonal influenza in Puerto Rico (Q827516)

To study the spatial spread of the 2015--2016 seasonal influenza in Puerto Rico, a diffusive compartmental model with time delay was proposed. The existence and positivity of solutions for the model were established. Further, global dynamics of the model were investigated. For the application, the geographical boundaries of Puerto Rico and the spatial discretization of the epidemic populations are identified. Then, there is the simulation of the epidemic outbreak for the 2015--2016. This study propose one possible explanation for the seasonality of influenza: a subtype of influenza is introduced to some locations of Puerto Rico annually in the late fall or winter; the infection then quickly spreads through the island and exhausts the susceptible population to a level that no longer sustains the transmission of the disease by the late winter or early spring.