The survival probability for critical spread-out oriented percolation above \(4 + 1\) dimensions. I. Induction. (Q880936)

The spread-out oriented bond percolation model is studied. Namely, to each directed bond \(((x,n),(y,n+1))\) where \(x,y \in \mathbb{Z}^d\) and \(n\in \mathbb{Z}_+\), corresponds a random variable taking values \(1\) with probability \(pD(x-y)\) and \(0\) with probability \(1-pD(x-y)\) (these random variables are independent; their joint probability law is denoted by \(\mathbb{P}_p\)), \(D\) is a probability distribution on \(\mathbb{Z}^d\) and \(p \in [0,\| D\| _{\infty}^{-1}]\), \(\| \cdot\| _{\infty}\) being the supremum norm. In the basic example (given in [\textit{R. van der Hofstad, G. Slade}, Prob. Theory Rel. Fields 122, 389--430 (2002; Zbl 1002.60095)]) \(D(x) = (2L+1)^{-d}\) if \(\| x\| _{\infty} \leq L\), \(D(x) = 0\) otherwise; the bonds are given by \(((x,n),(y,n+1))\) with \(\| x-y\| _{\infty}\leq L\), and a bond is occupied with probability \(p(2L+1)^{-d}\). In the present paper a more general situation is treated with auxiliary parameter \(L\) such that \(\| D\| \leq CL^{-d}\) for some positive constant \(C\). One writes \((x,n) \to m\) if \(m \geq n\) and there exists, for some \(y \in \mathbb{Z}^d\), an oriented path from \((x,n)\) to \((y,m)\) consisting of occupied bonds. Set \(\theta_n(p):= \mathbb{P}_p((0,0) \to n)\) and \(\Delta\theta_n(p):= \theta_n(p) - \theta_{n+1}(p)\). The main result is the following: Let \(d>4\), then there are finite positive \(L_0= L_0(d)\) and \(B=B(d,L) = \frac{1}{2} + O(L^{-d})\) such that, for \(L \geq L_0\), one has \(\Delta \theta_n(p_c) = \frac{1}{Bn^2}[1+O(n^{-1}\log n)+ L^{-d} O(\delta_n(d))]\) as \(n\to \infty\) where \(p_c\) is a critical threshold (i.e., the occurrence, for all \(n\), of \(\{(0,0) \to n\}\) has probability zero for \(p \leq p_c\) and has positive probability for \(p>p_c\)) and the explicit formula is provided for \(\delta_n(d)\). Thus the probability for the origin to be connected to the hyperplane at time \(n\) but not to the hyperplane at time \(n+1\) decays like \(1/Bn^2\) as \(n\to \infty\). In the forthcoming Part II of the paper the authors derive a lace expansion for the survival probability adapted so as to deal with point-to-plane connections.