Scenario logic and probabilistic management of risk in business and engineering. (Q960593)

Nowadays, many people deal with and make decisions on the basis of the estimation and analysis of risk in several activity areas. The book proposes a uniform logic and probabilistic (LP) approach to risk estimation and analysis in engineering and economics. It covers the methodological and theoretical basis of risk management at the design, test and operation stages of economic, banking and engineering systems with groups of incompatible events (GIE). Moreover, it considers the risk LP-models in classification, investment, management of companies, bribes and corruption, analysis of risk and efficiency of social and economical processes, and management of development. More specifically, the book is structured in 23 chapters. The first seven chapters cover the methodological aspects of the scenario LP non-success risk management including the connections of the management, risk and human being, the concepts of risk management during the stages of design, test and operation of complex systems, and the requirements for the transparency of the methods of estimation of credit risk. Then, chapters 8-14 provide the theoretical basis of the scenario non-success risk LP-management in business and engineering, including the LP-calculus, the methodology of the automated structural and logical modelling, and the LP-theory with GIE, while chapters 15-21 provide the description of the non-success risk LP-models with GIE and their applications. Finally, chapter 22 presents the formal LP-theory of non-success risk with GIE, while chapter 23 describes the content and structure of a training course on the ``Modelling, estimation and analysis of risks in economics''. Given the above, the book is intended for experts in the field of risk management in business, technical, economic and organisational systems at the stages of design, test, debug and operation. Students, postgraduate students and teachers in economics and engineering fields may also benefit from this book.