Grades of probability modality in the law of evidence (Q969425)

This paper presents an infinite hierarchy of multi-modal logics, \({\mathbf P}{\mathbf R}m\), with graded probabilistic modalities that enables expression that one proposition has a greater degree of probability or evidential strength than another. This framework is designed primarily to formalize certain concepts, due to Bolding and Ekelöf, of degrees of evidential strength appropriate to the establishment of matters of fact in courts of law. These provide the modalities, in order of decreasing strength, Obvious, Certain, Probable, and Presumable, and their contraries Excluded, CertainlyNot, Improbable, LessPresumable, such that for each of the first four, X\(A\), the corresponding modality of the second four is equivalent to Xnot-\(A\). The general framework, however, allows indefinitely many, even infinitely many, distinct modalities. Prior work of the author has addressed these concepts semantically. Here they are given both semantical and proof-theoretical treatments. Axiomatic systems are defined and demonstrated to be sound and (strongly) complete with respect to the proposed Kripke-type semantics. The demonstration includes the use of the author's device of `systematic frame constants', which allows the representation of the degrees of probability within the language of the logics.