Mathematical demography

PDEs in connection with game theory, economics, social and behavioral sciences (35Q91) Applications of Markov chains and discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces (social mobility, learning theory, industrial processes, etc.) (60J20) Applications of branching processes (60J85) Mathematical geography and demography (91D20)

Review text

This substantial review article provides an extensive overview of mathematical demography, linking classical population theory to various recent developments. Central topics include the Euler-Lotka renewal equation, intrinsic growth rates, generation length, and stable age distributions; the McKendrick-von Foerster age-structured partial differential equation (PDE); the construction and interpretation of life tables; and stationary-population identities, including Carey's equality and the author's partition results. Later sections introduce discrete- and continuous-time Markov chains, branching and birth-death processes, extinction probabilities and multiple-decrement life tables. The article's principal value lies in its breadth, its attempt to place deterministic and stochastic approaches within a common demographic framework, and its numerous worked derivations and examples. However, some mathematical claims require qualification, and a few of these are noted here. In the derivation of the McKendrick-von Foerster equation, Eq. (38), it is stated that, in the absence of deaths and migration, population density changes along an age-time characteristic, or birth-cohort line. The corresponding balance should instead give zero change along the characteristic. Although the final PDE is standard, the preceding derivation is internally inconsistent. The characterisation of generation length as the `average age of mothers at the birth of the first or last baby' is also misleading. In Section 2.3, monotonicity of $\phi(r)$ is invoked while $r$ is also permitted to be complex. Statements such as `$\phi'(r) < 0$' only apply to the real axis and establish the uniqueness of the real root, not the existence or number of complex roots. This ambiguity should be corrected. When introducing life tables, the paper could have provided a clearer explanation of population exposure. In Eq. (65), the empirical ratio $(D_a/P_a)$ is only an approximation when mid-year population is used as a proxy for person-years at risk. In contrast, the life-table relation $(m_a = d_a/L_a)$ is definitional within the life-table model. A significant limitation is the lack of a comprehensive account of potential-based demographic theory. Although population momentum is mentioned briefly, the paper does not connect it to Fisher's reproductive value, Keyfitz's stable equivalent or demographic potential approaches. These concepts provide an important bridge between stable-population theory, transient age-structured dynamics and population projections, and can yield measures that converge monotonically under suitable assumptions, even when individual age shares oscillate. Despite these limitations, the paper should be useful to readers interested in mathematical models of demographic processes.

Cites work

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