Modeling and estimation of multi-source clustering in crime and security data
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Abstract: While the presence of clustering in crime and security event data is well established, the mechanism(s) by which clustering arises is not fully understood. Both contagion models and history independent correlation models are applied, but not simultaneously. In an attempt to disentangle contagion from other types of correlation, we consider a Hawkes process with background rate driven by a log Gaussian Cox process. Our inference methodology is an efficient Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm for filtering of the intensity and estimation of the model parameters. We apply the methodology to property and violent crime data from Chicago, terrorist attack data from Northern Ireland and Israel, and civilian casualty data from Iraq. For each data set we quantify the uncertainty in the levels of contagion vs. history independent correlation.
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- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 2042687 (Why is no real title available?)
- scientific article; zbMATH DE number 6253886 (Why is no real title available?)
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Cited in
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- Space-time inhomogeneous background intensity estimators for semi-parametric space-time self-exciting point process models
- Scalable high-resolution forecasting of sparse spatiotemporal events with kernel methods: a winning solution to the NIJ ``Real-time crime forecasting challenge
- Improvements on scalable stochastic Bayesian inference methods for multivariate Hawkes process
- Multivariate Hawkes processes with spatial covariates for spatiotemporal event data analysis
- A Bayesian hierarchical model for criminal investigations
- Hawkes binomial topic model with applications to coupled conflict-Twitter data
- Bayesian mitigation of spatial coarsening for a Hawkes model applied to gunfire, wildfire and viral contagion
- Point-process models of social network interactions: Parameter estimation and missing data recovery
- Spatiotemporal-textual point processes for crime linkage detection
- A coupled ETAS-\(\mathrm{I}^{2}\)GMM point process with applications to seismic fault detection
- Modelling Burglary in Chicago using a self-exciting point process with isotropic triggering
- Modeling and estimation for self-exciting spatio-temporal models of terrorist activity
- Spatio-temporal patterns of IED usage by the Provisional Irish Republican Army
- Studying crime trends in the USA over the years 2000--2012
- Mining periodic patterns and cascading bursts phenomenon in individual e-mail communication
- Approximation of Bayesian Hawkes process with \texttt{inlabru}
- Estimating Covid-19 transmission time using Hawkes point processes
- Sequential data assimilation for 1D self-exciting processes with application to urban crime data
- Approximate filtering of conditional intensity process for Poisson count data: application to urban crime
- Self-exciting point process modeling of crime
- Variational Bayes Estimation of Discrete-Margined Copula Models With Application to Time Series
- Point process modeling through a mixture of homogeneous and self-exciting processes
- Self-exciting jump processes and their asymptotic behaviour
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