Optimal control of heterogeneous mutating viruses

DOI10.3390/G9040103MaRDI QIDQ1712187zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Elena Gubar, Vladislav Taynitskiy, Quanyan Zhu

Publication date 21 January 2019

Published in Games (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.3390/g9040103

zbMATH Keywords

epidemic processevolutionary gamesoptimal controlSIR modelvirus mutation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of optimal control and differential games (49N90) Evolutionary games (91A22) Medical epidemiology (92C60) Epidemiology (92D30)

Review text

Summary: Different strains of influenza viruses spread in human populations during every epidemic season. As the size of an infected population increases, the virus can mutate itself and grow in strength. The traditional epidemic SIR model does not capture virus mutations and, hence, the model is not sufficient to study epidemics where the virus mutates at the same time as it spreads. In this work, we establish a novel framework to study the epidemic process with mutations of influenza viruses, which couples the SIR model with replicator dynamics used for describing virus mutations. We formulated an optimal control problem to study the optimal strategies for medical treatment and quarantine decisions. We obtained structural results for the optimal strategies and used numerical examples to corroborate our results.

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Cited in

(9)

• Preface to special issue on dynamic games for modeling and control of epidemics
• Optimal virulence, diffusion and tradeoffs
• Optimal control for evolutionary imperfect transmission problems
• Optimal control of multi-strain epidemic processes in complex networks
• A Survey on Two Viruses Extensions of Epidemic Model with Continuous and Impulse Control
• Optimal lockdown and vaccination policies to contain the spread of a mutating infectious disease
• Managing an epidemic using compartmental models and measure differential equations
• Survey on SEIRD epidemic models with different focuses
• Exploring the effectiveness of coupled control measures on strain diversity and epidemic spread

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