Parametric statistical change point analysis

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This work is concerned with a posteriori methods of parametric statistical change point analysis. Chapter 2 deals with the univariate normal model mainly via the likelihood-ratio procedure, culminating in the presentation and proof of L. Horváth's main asymptotic null distribution result versus the alternative when the mean and variance may both change at most once [cf. \textit{L. Horvárth}, Ann. Stat. 21, No. 2, 671-680 (1993; Zbl 0778.62016)]. \textit{L. Yu. Vostrikova} [Sov. Math., Dokl. 24, 55-59 (1981); translation from Dokl. Akad. Nauk SSSR 259, 270-274 (1981; Zbl 0487.62072)] proposed a method, known as the binary segmentation procedure, and proved its consistency. This binary segmentation procedure has the merit of detecting the number of change points and their positions simultaneously, thus saving quite a bit of computation time. This procedure is summarized in Section 1.3, and is recommended throughout, whenever applicable, like, e.g., in the case of the just mentioned situation when, initially, it is hypothesized that the mean and variance of a normal distribution may both change at most once only. Just like the likelihood-ratio procedure, \textit{H. Akaike}'s maximum likelihood based information criterion approach [2nd Int. Symp. Inform. Theory, Tsahkadsor 1971, 267-281 (1973; Zbl 0283.62006)] is also utilized in Chapter 2, as well as throughout. Chapter 3 deals with the Multivariate Normal Model along the mentioned lines. Chapter 4 discusses the change point problem for Simple Linear Regression Models, as well as for Multiple Linear Regression Models by using the already mentioned lines of investigation, as well as via using the Schwarz information criterion [\textit{G. Schwarz}, Ann. Stat. 6, 461-464 (1978; Zbl 0379.62005)], a modification of the Akaike information criterion, which reduces computations in comparison with the likelihood-ratio procedure approach and, in contrast with Akaike's original notion, also gives an asymptotically consistent estimate of the order of the true model. The error terms are assumed to be uncorrelated \(N(0,\sigma^2)\) r.v.'s with \(\sigma^2\) unknown. The Bayesian approach is also used in Chapter 4, as well as in Chapter 5, which deals with the Gamma Model. The Exponential Model is studied on its own in Chapter 6, while Chapter 7 studies the Binomial and Poisson models. Illustrative examples and useful numerical tables are provided throughout the book. For further recent studies on change-point problems, the interested reader is referred to two books of \textit{B.E. Brodskij} and \textit{B.S. Darkhovskij}, ``Nonparametric Methods in Change-Point Problems. (1993; Zbl 0779.62031), and ``Nonparametric Statistical Diagnoses: Problems and Methods. (2000) and to \textit{M. Csörgő} and \textit{L. Horváth}, ``Limit Theorems in Change-Point Analysis. (1997; Zbl 0884.62023). The latter book deals with a posteriori parametric and nonparametric methods of change-point analysis, while the books of Brodskij and Darkhovskij study a posteriori and sequential methods of nonparametric change-point analysis.




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