Probabilistic Coherence and Proper Scoring Rules
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Abstract: We provide self-contained proof of a theorem relating probabilistic coherence of forecasts to their non-domination by rival forecasts with respect to any proper scoring rule. The theorem appears to be new but is closely related to results achieved by other investigators.
Cited in
(40)- On the linear structure of betting criterion and the checking of coherence
- Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities. (With discussion)
- Consistency of scoring rules: a reinvestigation of composition-consistency
- Aggregating incoherent agents who disagree
- Probability envelopes and their Dempster-Shafer approximations in statistical matching
- Forecasting with imprecise probabilities
- Extropy: complementary dual of entropy
- Measuring inaccuracy of uncertain doxastic states in many-valued logical systems
- Chance, resiliency, and Humean supervenience
- Accuracy, conditionalization, and probabilism
- Objective Bayesianism and the maximum entropy principle
- Aggregating large sets of probabilistic forecasts by weighted coherent adjustment
- Robust confidence distributions from proper scoring rules
- A Probability Scoring Rule for Simultaneous Events
- Measuring the overall incoherence of credence functions
- On the Best Accuracy Arguments for Probabilism
- Accuracy-First Epistemology Without Additivity
- Logical ignorance and logical learning
- Envelopes of equivalent martingale measures and a generalized no-arbitrage principle in a finite setting
- NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS FOR DOMINATION RESULTS FOR PROPER SCORING RULES
- The value of cost-free uncertain evidence
- TOWARDS THE INEVITABILITY OF NON-CLASSICAL PROBABILITY
- An accuracy-dominance argument for conditionalization
- A subjective interpretation of Liu-Liu's credibility measures and expectations
- Probability propagation rules for Aristotelian syllogisms
- The extent of partially resolving uncertainty in assessing coherent conditional plausibilities
- How to assess coherent beliefs: a comparison of different notions of coherence in Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence
- The dialectics of accuracy arguments for probabilism
- Aptness and means-end coherence: a dominance argument for causal decision theory
- Accuracy and infinity: a dilemma for subjective Bayesians
- Accuracy, probabilism and Bayesian update in infinite domains
- Entropy and extropy for partial probability assessments on arbitrary families of events
- A dilemma for Solomonoff prediction
- In favor of logarithmic scoring
- Graded incoherence for accuracy-firsters
- Agreement and updating for self-locating belief
- Radical pooling and imprecise probabilities
- Bayesian updating when what you learn might be false (forthcoming in \textit{Erkenntnis})
- Probability by convention
- Probabilism, entropies and strictly proper scoring rules
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