A Probability Scoring Rule for Simultaneous Events

DOI10.1287/DECA.2019.0393MaRDI QIDQ5121288zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors A. Grant, David Johnstone, Oh Kang Kwon

Publication date 14 September 2020

Published in Decision Analysis (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2019.0393

zbMATH Keywords

power utilityprobability forecastingtailored scoring ruleweighted scoring rule

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Management decision making, including multiple objectives (90B50)

Recommendations

• Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities. (With discussion)
• Tailored scoring rules for probabilities
• Probabilistic Coherence and Proper Scoring Rules
• Contrasting probabilistic scoring rules
• The probability that all weighted scoring rules elect the same winner
• Evaluating Probabilities: Asymmetric Scoring Rules
• Coincidence probabilities for simple majority and proportional lottery rules
• The probability of ties with scoring methods: some results

Cites work

• An Overview of Applications of Proper Scoring Rules
• Capital growth with security
• Economic interpretation of probabilities estimated by maximum likelihood or score
• Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations
• Expected information as ecpected utility
• Growth Versus Security in Dynamic Investment Analysis
• Optimal betting under parameter uncertainty: improving the Kelly criterion
• Partial-Kelly strategies and expected utility: small-edge asymptotics
• Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities. (With discussion)
• Scoring Rules, Generalized Entropy, and Utility Maximization
• Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
• Tailored scoring rules for probabilities

Cited in

(5)

• Economic Darwinism: Who has the best probabilities?
• Scoring Rules, Generalized Entropy, and Utility Maximization
• Weighted Scoring Rules and Convex Risk Measures
• Additive scoring rules for discrete sample spaces
• Scoring Probability Forecasts by a User’s Bets Against a Market Consensus

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