Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations

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Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with an application to ensemble predictions of surface winds
Eliciting beliefs
A characterization for the spherical scoring rule
Delegated portfolio management
An approach for preference ranking of alternatives
Pivot mechanisms as a link between probability and preference revelation
A Bayesian view of assessing uncertainty and comparing expert opinion
Value of communication in agencies
A theory of subjective expected utility with vague preferences
Personal probabilities of probabilities
Sequential fuzzy system identification
A variational model of preference under uncertainty
Fuzzy uncertainty in imperfect competition
Probabilistic multi-knowledge-base systems
Probabilities and beliefs
Estimation of spatial processes using local scoring rules: spatial special issue
Forecast dominance testing via sign randomization
Asymptotic minimum scoring rule prediction
Covariate balancing propensity score by tailored loss functions
Multi-dimensional procurement auction under uncertain and asymmetric information
On the role of responsiveness in rational herds
Further results on inquiry and truth possession
Incentive contracts and strictly proper scoring rules.
Balanced Bayesian mechanisms
The impossibility of experimental elicitation of subjective probabilities
Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities. (With discussion)
A note on proper scoring rules and risk aversion
Cost-sensitive learning based on Bregman divergences
Probabilistic sensitivity measures as information value
Robust stochastic sorting with interacting criteria hierarchically structured
Forecast evaluation of quantiles, prediction intervals, and other set-valued functionals
Credence for conclusions: a brief for Jeffrey's rule
Eliciting ambiguous beliefs using constructed ambiguous acts: alpha-maxmin
Incomplete risk attitudes and random choice behavior: an elicitation mechanism
Characterizing the optimal solutions to the isotonic regression problem for identifiable functionals
Point forecasting and forecast evaluation with generalized Huber loss
A theory-based decision model
A mechanism for the elicitation of second-order belief and subjective information structure
Weighted representative democracy
A robust hierarchical nominal multicriteria classification method based on similarity and dissimilarity
Aggregation of experts' opinions and conditional consensus opinion by the Steiner point
Order on types based on monotone comparative statics
Dominating countably many forecasts
An axiomatic characterization of wagering mechanisms
Item response theory with estimation of the latent population distribution using spline-based densities
Proper scoring rules with general preferences: a dual characterization of optimal reports
Obvious belief elicitation
The uniqueness of local proper scoring rules: the logarithmic family
Automated item generation with recurrent neural networks
Elicitable distortion risk measures: a concise proof
Risk-neutral equilibria of noncooperative games
Economic Darwinism: Who has the best probabilities?
Forecasting with imprecise probabilities
Mechanisms for information elicitation
Scalable transfer learning in heterogeneous, dynamic environments
Robust incentives for information acquisition
Power diagram detection with applications to information elicitation
The value of a probability forecast from portfolio theory
Where do Bayesian priors come from?
Verification of internal risk measure estimates
Extropy: complementary dual of entropy
You've come a long way, Bayesians
Rules of proof for maximal entropy inference
Deep quantile and deep composite triplet regression
The characterisation of scoring functions
Minimum scoring rule inference
Designing markets for daily deals
A Beaufort Scale of Predictability
Sharing rewards among strangers based on peer evaluations
Comonotonic proper scoring rules to measure ambiguity and subjective beliefs
Higher order elicitability and Osband's principle
An Overview of Applications of Proper Scoring Rules
Some aspects of probability forecasting
Responsive lotteries
On the measurement of economic tail risk
A mathematical theory of evidence turns 40
Margin losses for training conditional random fields
On the foundations of statistics and decision theory
Entropy and cross entropy: characterizations and applications
Quantifying the Predictive Performance of Prognostic Models for Censored Survival Data with Time-Dependent Covariates
Epistemic values and the value of learning
Analisis bayesiano de un proceso binomial
Contrasting probabilistic scoring rules
Inferring beliefs as subjectively imprecise probabilities
Subjective weights based meta-learning in multi-criteria decision making
Quantile evaluation, sensitivity to bracketing, and sharing business payoffs
On elicitable risk measures
Tailored scoring rules for probabilities
Reflections on Fourteen Cryptic Issues Concerning the Nature of Statistical Inference*
Distributional inference
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 7255066 (Why is no real title available?)
Memoryless sequences for general losses
Eliciting subjective probability distributions with binary lotteries
An axiomatic study of scoring rule markets
Measuring belief and risk attitude
Weighted Scoring Rules and Convex Risk Measures
The complexity of user retention
On the Road to Making Science of “Art”: Risk Bias in Market Scoring Rules
Incentive-compatible surveys via posterior probabilities
A Probability Scoring Rule for Simultaneous Events

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