Tailored scoring rules for probabilities

DOI10.1287/DECA.1110.0216MaRDI QIDQ4691942zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors David Johnstone, Robert L. Winkler, Victor Richmond R. Jose

Publication date 24 October 2018

Published in Decision Analysis (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.1110.0216

zbMATH Keywords

decision analysisincentivesprobability evaluationprobability forecastsscoring rulesutility

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Prediction theory (aspects of stochastic processes) (60G25) Decision theory (91B06)

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Cites work

• A truth serum for non-Bayesians: correcting proper scoring rules for risk attitudes
• Economic interpretation of probabilities estimated by maximum likelihood or score
• Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations
• Evaluating Probabilities: Asymmetric Scoring Rules
• MEASURES OF THE VALUE OF INFORMATION
• Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities. (With discussion)
• Scoring Rules, Generalized Entropy, and Utility Maximization
• Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
• The geometry of proper scoring rules
• Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

Cited in

(15)

• Incentive contracts and strictly proper scoring rules.
• Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities. (With discussion)
• Scoring predictions at extreme quantiles
• \textit{Put your money where your forecast is}: supply chain collaborative forecasting with cost-function-based prediction markets
• Optimal betting under parameter uncertainty: improving the Kelly criterion
• An Overview of Applications of Proper Scoring Rules
• Score-Based vs. Probability-Based Enumeration – A Cautionary Note
• Contrasting probabilistic scoring rules
• Quantile evaluation, sensitivity to bracketing, and sharing business payoffs
• Choosing a strictly proper scoring rule
• Two reasons to make aggregated probability forecasts more extreme
• Weighted Scoring Rules and Convex Risk Measures
• Additive scoring rules for discrete sample spaces
• A Probability Scoring Rule for Simultaneous Events
• Scoring Probability Forecasts by a User’s Bets Against a Market Consensus

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