Probabilities of causation: Bounds and identification

DOI10.1023/A:1018912507879MaRDI QIDQ1601853zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Jin Tian, Judea Pearl

Publication date 27 June 2002

Published in Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1301.3898

zbMATH Keywords

probability of causation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Probability and inductive logic (03B48) Logic in artificial intelligence (68T27)

Abstract: This paper deals with the problem of estimating the probability that one event was a cause of another in a given scenario. Using structural-semantical definitions of the probabilities of necessary or sufficient causation (or both), we show how to optimally bound these quantities from data obtained in experimental and observational studies, making minimal assumptions concerning the data-generating process. In particular, we strengthen the results of Pearl (1999) by weakening the data-generation assumptions and deriving theoretically sharp bounds on the probabilities of causation. These results delineate precisely how empirical data can be used both in settling questions of attribution and in solving attribution-related problems of decision making.

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