Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics

From MaRDI portal
Publication:1082027

DOI10.1016/0304-4076(86)90001-1zbMath0602.62098OpenAlexW2114151293MaRDI QIDQ1082027

Peter C. B. Phillips

Publication date: 1986

Published in: Journal of Econometrics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d07/d0757.pdf




Related Items

Counterfactual Analysis With Artificial Controls: Inference, High Dimensions, and NonstationarityTesting for Panel Cointegration Using Common Correlated Effects EstimatorsCONSISTENT LOCAL SPECTRUM INFERENCE FOR PREDICTIVE RETURN REGRESSIONSA flexible parametric density estimator for multimodal distributions of test statisticsThe dynamics of leveraged ETFs returns: a panel data studyINFERENCE ON SEGMENTED COINTEGRATIONInference for Autocorrelations in the Possible Presence of a Unit RootVolatility Spillover Effect: A Semiparametric Analysis of Non-Cointegrated ProcessSpurious regression between long memory series due to mis-specified structural breaksSPURIOUS REGRESSIONS BETWEEN I(d) PROCESSESNetwork Dependence Can Lead to Spurious Associations and Invalid InferenceA revisit to sovereign risk contagion in eurozone with mutual exciting regime-switching modelYule's ``nonsense correlation for Gaussian random walksPre-selection in cointegration-based pairs tradingPhoebus J. Dhrymes (1932–2016)On the interactions of unit roots and exogeneityHigh-dimensional IV cointegration estimation and inferenceNonstationary regression models with a lagged dependent variableNonstationary regression models with a lagged dependent variableTesting for spurious and cointegrated regressions: A wavelet approachSemi-parametric modelling of temperature recordsDynamics of the term structure of interest rates and monetary policy: is monetary policy effective during zero interest rate policy?A cointegration analysis of crime, economic activity, and police performance in São Paulo cityComment on testing for spurious and cointegrated regressions: a wavelet approachResponse to the comment on testing for spurious and cointegrated regressions: a wavelet approachNew bootstrap inference for spurious regression problemsA CONVERGENT t-STATISTIC IN SPURIOUS REGRESSIONSEffect of temporal aggregation on multiple time series in the frequency domainTHE ET INTERVIEW: PROFESSOR DAVID F. HENDRY: Interviewed by Neil R. EricssonA residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel dataPANEL COINTEGRATION: ASYMPTOTIC AND FINITE SAMPLE PROPERTIES OF POOLED TIME SERIES TESTS WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE PPP HYPOTHESISMODEL DISCOVERY AND TRYGVE HAAVELMO’S LEGACY\(L_p\)-approximable sequences of vectors and limit distribution of quadratic forms of random variablesResiduals‐based tests for the null of no‐cointegration: an Analytical comparisonUNIT ROOT TESTS WITH WAVELETSEstimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data: A Monte Carlo StudyOn the Robustness of Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Double Unit RootsNonlinear error correction modelsEfficient Estimation of the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Cointegration Model and Testing for Purchasing Power ParityASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTIONS OF SEASONAL UNIT ROOT TESTS: A UNIFYING APPROACHFinite sample properties of nonstationary binary response models: A monte carlo analysisEstimating the Rank of the Spectral Density MatrixSemiparametric Estimation in Time‐Series Regression with Long‐Range DependenceTESTING THE ORDER OF DIFFERENCING IN TIME SERIES REGRESSIONA Bayesian analysis of log-periodic precursors to financial crashesInstrumental variables estimation of stationary and non‐stationary cointegrating regressionsLOCAL LIMIT THEORY AND SPURIOUS NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSIONTHE PROPERTIES OF KULLBACK–LEIBLER DIVERGENCE FOR THE UNIT ROOT HYPOTHESISTESTING THE NULL OF NO COINTEGRATION WHEN COVARIATES ARE KNOWN TO HAVE A UNIT ROOTNONPARAMETRIC SPECIFICATION TESTING FOR NONLINEAR TIME SERIES WITH NONSTATIONARITYEvidence of ARCH(1) Errors in the Context of Spurious RegressionsInferring fundamental value and crash nonlinearity from bubble calibrationHAAVELMO’S PROBABILITY APPROACH AND THE COINTEGRATED VARBlock Bootstrap Theory for Multivariate Integrated and Cointegrated ProcessesREPRESENTATION OF I(1) AND I(2) AUTOREGRESSIVE HILBERTIAN PROCESSESLATENT VARIABLE NONPARAMETRIC COINTEGRATING REGRESSIONNonstationary panel data analysis: an overview of some recent developmentsUnnamed ItemThe spurious regression of AR(\(p\)) infinite-variance sequence in the presence of structural breaksUnderstanding nonsense correlation between (independent) random walks in finite samplesMultivariate trend function testing with mixed stationary and integrated disturbancesUnderstanding spurious regressions in econometricsNonstationary nonlinear heteroskedasticity in regressionRobust estimation for structural spurious regressions and a Hausman-type cointegration testCo-integration testing using local-to-unity detrending: the impact of structural change under the nullParameter estimation in regression models with errors in the vairables and autocorrelated disturbancesThe asymptotics of single-equation cointegration regressions with I(1) and I(2) variablesThe performance of the overall tests of seasonal integration against nonstationary alternatives: A unifying approachCointegration analysis with state space modelsMicro versus macro cointegration in heterogeneous panelsEstimating cointegration parameters: An application of the double bootstrapMethods of analyzing nonstationary time series with implicit changes in their propertiesCorrelation theory of spuriously related higher order integrated processesStatistical Tests and Estimators of the Rank of a Matrix and Their Applications in Econometric ModellingBayesian model selection and prediction with empirical applicationsStatistical analysis of cointegration vectorsTesting for cointegration using principal components methodsForecasting and testing in co-integrated systemsAsymptotics of Yule's nonsense correlation for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck paths: a Wiener chaos approachSpurious functional-coefficient regression models and robust inference with marginal integrationCointegration tests in the presence of structural breaksUnit root testingFully modified IV, GIVE and GMM estimation with possibly non-stationary regressors and instruments.Random walks with drifts: Nonsense regression and spurious fixed-effect estimationAlternative methods of detrending and the power of unit root testsSpurious regression due to neglected of non-stationary volatilityEstimation in dynamic regression with an integrated processOn spurious regressions with partial unit root processesA new approach to unit root testingSpurious regressionOn the asymptotic \(t\)-test for large nonstationary panel modelsLogarithmic spurious regressionsSpurious regressions with stationary processes around linear trendsSpurious nonlinear regressions in econometricsA method for integrated process simulation in the mining industrySpurious regressions between stationary generalized long memory processesSpurious correlation of \(I(0)\) regressors in models with an \(I(1)\) dependent variableBootstrapping Autoregression under Non-stationary VolatilityMulticointegration under measurement errorsAnalytical evaluation of the power of tests for the absence of cointegrationNonsense regressions due to neglected time-varying meansDo we reject rational expectations models too often?: Interpreting evidence using Nagar expansionsSpurious regressions driven by excessive volatilityChanges in persistence, spurious regressions and the Fisher hypothesisA simple solution of the spurious regression problemThe relationship between budgetary expenditure and economic growth in PolandAlternative estimators and unit root tests for seasonal autoregressive processesOn the bias of the OLS estimator in a nonstationary dynamic panel data modelSpurious regression and lurking variablesSemiparametric estimation in triangular system equations with nonstationarityA note on spurious regression in seasonal time seriesRobust inference for spurious regressions and cointegrations involving processes moderately deviated from a unit rootThe spurious regression of fractionally integrated processesAsymptotic properties of estimators for the linear panel regression model with random individual effects and serially correlated errors: the case of stationary and non-stationary regressors and residualsThe scale of predictabilityWeak \(\sigma\)-convergence: theory and applicationsSpurious regressions when stationary regressors are includedSpurious deterministic seasonalityCo-integration and trend-stationarity in macroeconomic time series. Evidence from the likelihood functionUseful conclusions from surprising resultsSpurious regressions in technical tradingA statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?Challenges of trending time series econometricsThe failure of orthogonality under nonstationarity: should we care about it?Spurious Instrumental VariablesOn the performance of the DHF tests against nonstationary alternativesSpurious correlation under fractional integration in output seriesTest for cointegration based on two-stage least squaresSpurious Regressions with Time-Series Data: Further Asymptotic ResultsTesting for cointegration in the presence of mis-specified structural changeA new correlation coefficient for bivariate time-series dataDetecting log-periodicity in a regime-switching model of stock returnsOptimal estimation of cointegrated systems with irrelevant instrumentsSummability of stochastic processes -- a generalization of integration for non-linear processesEstimating cointegrating relations from a cross sectionCointegration in a historical perspectiveConsistent inference for predictive regressions in persistent economic systemsA CONSISTENT NONPARAMETRIC TEST ON SEMIPARAMETRIC SMOOTH COEFFICIENT MODELS WITH INTEGRATED TIME SERIESA simple solution for spurious regressionsUNBALANCED COINTEGRATIONTrending time series and macroeconomic activity: Some present and future challengesAnalysis of cointegration vectors using the GMM approachInference in possibly integrated vector autoregressive models: Some finite sample evidenceTests for cointegration with infinite variance errorsSpurios regression theory with nonstationary fractionally integrated processesModel selection in partially nonstationary vector autoregressive processes with reduced rank structureTest for partial parameter instability in regressions with \(I(1)\) processesA RESIDUAL-BASED LM-TYPE TEST AGAINST FRACTIONAL COINTEGRATIONA model of fractional cointegration, and tests for cointegration using the bootstrap.Testing for parameter instability and structural change in persistent predictive regressionsThe spurious effect of unit roots on vector autoregressions. An analytical studySpurious Regression Under Broken-Trend StationarityA note on computing \(r\)-squared and adjusted \(r\)-squared for trending and seasonal dataSpurious regressions and residual-based tests for cointegration when regressors are cointegratedNew unit root asymptotics in the presence of deterministic trends.UNIT ROOTS: A SELECTIVE REVIEW OF THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF PETER C. B. PHILLIPSPETER C.B. PHILLIPS’S CONTRIBUTIONS TO PANEL DATA METHODS



Cites Work