The core group revisited: The effect of partner mixing and migration on the spread of Gonorrhea, Chlamydia, and HIV

DOI10.1016/0025-5564(94)90036-1MaRDI QIDQ1325010zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors V. Pereyra

Publication date 7 July 1994

Published in Mathematical Biosciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1016/0025-5564(94)90036-1

zbMATH Keywords

chalmydiaduration of infectiousnesseffects of partner mixingequilibrium number of infectedgonorrheaHIVmigrationone-sex populationspread of sexually transmitted diseasestransmission probability per sexual contact

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Review text

A set of differential equations are used to model the spread of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in a one-sex population that includes a core group of highly sexually active subjects. The effects of partner mixing between groups and migration to and from the core on the equilibrium number of infected are shown for gonorrhea, chalmydia, and HIV. The STDs are described by the transmission probability per sexual contact and the duration of infectiousness. Partner change and intercourse frequencies are estimated from sexual survey data on heterosexual behavior. The core group is small (3\% of the total population) with a partner change frequency 15 times and an intercourse frequency 2 times that of the remaining population. The degree of partner mixing and migration between the two groups can be varied. The number of sexual contacts in the three types of partnerships (core-core, ``mixed, remaining population- remaining population) is also modeled. The mixed partnerships are assumed to be casual and to have a low frequency of intercourse. The model is fairly simple, and the emphasis is on qualitative rather than predictive results. The effects of partner mixing are found to be strikingly different for gonorrhea, chlamydia, and HIV.

Recommendations

• A core group model for disease transmission
• Assessment of sexual mixing patterns
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 898404

Cites work

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Cited in

(9)

• Spatial spread of sexually transmitted diseases within susceptible populations at demographic steady state
• Modeling HIV outbreaks: The male to female prevalence ratio in the core population
• Using the Kalman filter and dynamic models to assess the changing HIV/AIDS epidemic
• HIV transmissions by stage in dynamic sexual partnerships
• Case and partnership reproduction numbers for a curable sexually transmitted infection
• Application of Lie group analysis to a core group model for sexually transmitted diseases
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 64206 (Why is no real title available?)
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 1944252 (Why is no real title available?)
• A multigroup model for a heterosexually transmitted disease

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Uses Software

• Mathematica

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