The core group revisited: The effect of partner mixing and migration on the spread of Gonorrhea, Chlamydia, and HIV (Q1325010)

A set of differential equations are used to model the spread of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in a one-sex population that includes a core group of highly sexually active subjects. The effects of partner mixing between groups and migration to and from the core on the equilibrium number of infected are shown for gonorrhea, chalmydia, and HIV. The STDs are described by the transmission probability per sexual contact and the duration of infectiousness. Partner change and intercourse frequencies are estimated from sexual survey data on heterosexual behavior. The core group is small (3\% of the total population) with a partner change frequency 15 times and an intercourse frequency 2 times that of the remaining population. The degree of partner mixing and migration between the two groups can be varied. The number of sexual contacts in the three types of partnerships (core-core, ``mixed,'' remaining population- remaining population) is also modeled. The mixed partnerships are assumed to be casual and to have a low frequency of intercourse. The model is fairly simple, and the emphasis is on qualitative rather than predictive results. The effects of partner mixing are found to be strikingly different for gonorrhea, chlamydia, and HIV.