Who is the infector? Epidemic models with symptomatic and asymptomatic cases

DOI10.1016/J.MBS.2018.04.002MaRDI QIDQ1644724zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors K. Y. Leung, Pieter Trapman, T. Britton

Publication date 22 June 2018

Published in Mathematical Biosciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1801.08815

zbMATH Keywords

continuous-time Reed-Frost modelsfinal sizeMarkov modelstwo-type SEIR epidemictype of infector

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces (60J28) Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: What role do asymptomatically infected individuals play in the transmission dynamics? There are many diseases, such as norovirus and influenza, where some infected hosts show symptoms of the disease while others are asymptomatically infected, i.e. do not show any symptoms. The current paper considers a class of epidemic models following an SEIR (Susceptible $o$ Exposed $o$ Infectious $o$ Recovered) structure that allows for both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. The following question is addressed: what fraction $ho$ of those individuals getting infected are infected by symptomatic (asymptomatic) cases? This is a more complicated question than the related question for the beginning of the epidemic: what fraction of the expected number of secondary cases of a typical newly infected individual, i.e. what fraction of the basic reproduction number $R_0$, is caused by symptomatic individuals? The latter fraction only depends on the type-specific reproduction numbers, while the former fraction $ho$ also depends on timing and hence on the probabilistic distributions of latent and infectious periods of the two types (not only their means). Bounds on $ho$ are derived for the situation where these distributions (and even their means) are unknown. Special attention is given to the class of Markov models and the class of continuous-time Reed-Frost models as two classes of distribution functions. We show how these two classes of models can exhibit very different behaviour.

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• Who is the infector? Epidemic models with symptomatic and asymptomatic cases

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• Asymptomatic transmission shifts epidemic dynamics
• Modelling strategies to organize healthcare workforce during pandemics: application to COVID-19
• Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples
• A chain binomial epidemic with asymptomatics motivated by COVID-19 modelling
• On the role of asymptomatic infection in transmission dynamics of infectious diseases
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 4043669 (Why is no real title available?)
• A data-driven epidemic model with social structure for understanding the COVID-19 infection on a heavily affected Italian province
• Structural differences in mixing behavior informing the role of asymptomatic infection and testing symptom heritability
• Who is the infector? General multi-type epidemics and real-time susceptibility processes
• Contagion models a la carte: which one to choose?
• Nonlinear dynamics of an epidemic compartment model with asymptomatic infections and mitigation
• An age-of-infection model with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections
• Final size for epidemic models with asymptomatic transmission
• Dynamical analysis of a COVID-19 epidemic model with social confinement and acquired immunity loss
• The contact process with an asymptomatic state
• Optimal control of pandemics via a sociodemographic model of non-pharmaceutical interventions
• Collective epidemics with asymptomatics and functional infection rates
• Differentiating contact with symptomatic and asymptomatic infectious individuals in a SEIR epidemic model

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