Splitting travel time based on AFC data: estimating walking, waiting, transfer, and in-vehicle travel times in metro system

DOI10.1155/2015/539756MaRDI QIDQ1723375zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Xianqiang Yang

Publication date 19 February 2019

Published in Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/539756

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Monte Carlo methods (65C05) Traffic problems in operations research (90B20)

Review text

Summary: The walking, waiting, transfer, and delayed in-vehicle travel times mainly contribute to route's travel time reliability in the metro system. The automatic fare collection (AFC) system provides huge amounts of smart card records which can be used to estimate all these times distributions. A new estimation model based on Bayesian inference formulation is proposed in this paper by integrating the probability measurement of the OD pair with only one effective route, in which all kinds of times follow the truncated normal distributions. Then, Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is designed to estimate all parameters endogenously. Finally, based on AFC data in Guangzhou Metro, the estimations show that all parameters can be estimated endogenously and identifiably. Meanwhile, the truncated property of the travel time is significant and the threshold tested by the surveyed data is reliable. Furthermore, the superiority of the proposed model over the existing model in estimation and forecasting accuracy is also demonstrated.

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Cites work

• An estimation method of passenger route choice proportion in urban rail transit based on AFC data
• Equation of state calculations by fast computing machines
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 699423 (Why is no real title available?)
• Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications

Cited in

(3)

• An estimation method of passenger route choice proportion in urban rail transit based on AFC data
• Distribution analysis of train interval journey time employing the censored model with shifting character
• Logistic model for pattern inference of subway passenger flows based on fare collection and vehicle location data

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