Second-order moment-closure for tighter epidemic thresholds

DOI10.1016/J.SYSCONLE.2018.01.006zbMATH Open1386.93270arXiv1706.08602OpenAlexW2729026193MaRDI QIDQ1749415FDOQ1749415

Authors: Masaki Ogura, Victor M. Preciado 

Publication date: 16 May 2018

Published in: Systems \& Control Letters (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: In this paper, we study the dynamics of contagious spreading processes taking place in complex contact networks. We specifically present a lower-bound on the decay rate of the number of nodes infected by a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) stochastic spreading process. A precise quantification of this decay rate is crucial for designing efficient strategies to contain epidemic outbreaks. However, existing lower-bounds on the decay rate based on first-order mean-field approximations are often accompanied by a large error resulting in inefficient containment strategies. To overcome this deficiency, we derive a lower-bound based on a second-order moment-closure of the stochastic SIS processes. The proposed second-order bound is theoretically guaranteed to be tighter than existing first-order bounds. We also present various numerical simulations to illustrate how our lower-bound drastically improves the performance of existing first-order lower-bounds in practical scenarios, resulting in more efficient strategies for epidemic containment.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.08602

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zbMATH Keywords

stabilitystochastic processescomplex networksspreading processes

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Communication networks in operations research (90B18) Stochastic systems in control theory (general) (93E03) Stochastic stability in control theory (93E15)

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Cited In (8)

• Competitive pricing under local network effects
• Analysis of the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics in networks via the non-backtracking matrix
• Optimal containment of epidemics over temporal activity-driven networks
• Metzler/zeta correspondence
• Incentive rate determination in viral marketing
• Effects of concurrency on epidemic spreading in Markovian temporal networks
• New moment closures based on a priori distributions with applications to epidemic dynamics
• Coupling multiscale within-host dynamics and between-host transmission with recovery (SIR) dynamics

Uses Software

• KONECT

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