Second-order moment-closure for tighter epidemic thresholds

DOI10.1016/J.SYSCONLE.2018.01.006MaRDI QIDQ1749415zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Masaki Ogura, Victor M. Preciado

Publication date 16 May 2018

Published in Systems \& Control Letters (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.08602

zbMATH Keywords

stabilitystochastic processescomplex networksspreading processes

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Communication networks in operations research (90B18) Stochastic systems in control theory (general) (93E03) Stochastic stability in control theory (93E15)

Abstract: In this paper, we study the dynamics of contagious spreading processes taking place in complex contact networks. We specifically present a lower-bound on the decay rate of the number of nodes infected by a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) stochastic spreading process. A precise quantification of this decay rate is crucial for designing efficient strategies to contain epidemic outbreaks. However, existing lower-bounds on the decay rate based on first-order mean-field approximations are often accompanied by a large error resulting in inefficient containment strategies. To overcome this deficiency, we derive a lower-bound based on a second-order moment-closure of the stochastic SIS processes. The proposed second-order bound is theoretically guaranteed to be tighter than existing first-order bounds. We also present various numerical simulations to illustrate how our lower-bound drastically improves the performance of existing first-order lower-bounds in practical scenarios, resulting in more efficient strategies for epidemic containment.

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Cited in

(8)

• Effects of concurrency on epidemic spreading in Markovian temporal networks
• New moment closures based on a priori distributions with applications to epidemic dynamics
• Metzler/zeta correspondence
• Analysis of the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics in networks via the non-backtracking matrix
• Incentive rate determination in viral marketing
• Competitive pricing under local network effects
• Coupling multiscale within-host dynamics and between-host transmission with recovery (SIR) dynamics
• Optimal containment of epidemics over temporal activity-driven networks

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