Scalable estimation of epidemic thresholds via node sampling

DOI10.1007/S13171-021-00249-0MaRDI QIDQ2121712zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Yanyan Li

Publication date 4 April 2022

Published in Sankhyā. Series A (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.14820

zbMATH Keywords

samplingrandom walknetworksepidemiologyconfiguration modelepidemic threshold

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Classification and discrimination; cluster analysis (statistical aspects) (62H30) Epidemiology (92D30) Random graphs (graph-theoretic aspects) (05C80) Social networks; opinion dynamics (91D30)

Abstract: Infectious or contagious diseases can be transmitted from one person to another through social contact networks. In today's interconnected global society, such contagion processes can cause global public health hazards, as exemplified by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. It is therefore of great practical relevance to investigate the network trans-mission of contagious diseases from the perspective of statistical inference. An important and widely studied boundary condition for contagion processes over networks is the so-called epidemic threshold. The epidemic threshold plays a key role in determining whether a pathogen introduced into a social contact network will cause an epidemic or die out. In this paper, we investigate epidemic thresholds from the perspective of statistical network inference. We identify two major challenges that are caused by high computational and sampling complexity of the epidemic threshold. We develop two statistically accurate and computationally efficient approximation techniques to address these issues under the Chung-Lu modeling framework. The second approximation, which is based on random walk sampling, further enjoys the advantage of requiring data on a vanishingly small fraction of nodes. We establish theoretical guarantees for both methods and demonstrate their empirical superiority.

Recommendations

• Contagion in graphons
• Epidemiologic network inference
• Inferring contagion patterns in social contact networks with limited infection data
• Estimating the epidemic threshold on networks by deterministic connections
• Bayesian inference of spreading processes on networks

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Cited in

(3)

• Second-order moment-closure for tighter epidemic thresholds
• Core-periphery structure in networks: a statistical exposition
• Impact of spatially constrained sampling of temporal contact networks on the evaluation of the epidemic risk

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• EpiSimdemics

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