A logical analysis of Monty Hall and Sleeping Beauty

DOI10.1007/S11225-017-9777-1MaRDI QIDQ1756594zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Allen L. Mann, Ville Aarnio

Publication date 21 December 2018

Published in Studia Logica (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1701.03062

zbMATH Keywords

independence-friendly logicIF logicMonty Hall problemSleeping Beauty problemlogic with imperfect informationstochastic IF logic

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Other nonclassical logic (03B60) Games involving topology, set theory, or logic (91A44) Axioms; other general questions in probability (60A05) Probabilistic games; gambling (91A60)

Abstract: Hintikka and Sandu's independence-friendly (IF) logic is a conservative extension of first-order logic that allows one to consider semantic games with imperfect information. In the present article, we first show how several variants of the Monty Hall problem can be modeled as semantic games for IF sentences. In the process, we extend IF logic to include semantic games with chance moves and dub this extension stochastic IF logic. Finally, we use stochastic IF logic to analyze the Sleeping Beauty problem, leading to the conclusion that the thirders are correct while identifying the main error in the halfers' argument.

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(1)

• Dynamic logic versus GTS: a case study

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