A logical analysis of Monty Hall and Sleeping Beauty

DOI10.1007/S11225-017-9777-1zbMATH Open1437.03108arXiv1701.03062OpenAlexW2589034731MaRDI QIDQ1756594FDOQ1756594

Authors: Allen L. Mann, Ville Aarnio 

Publication date: 21 December 2018

Published in: Studia Logica (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Hintikka and Sandu's independence-friendly (IF) logic is a conservative extension of first-order logic that allows one to consider semantic games with imperfect information. In the present article, we first show how several variants of the Monty Hall problem can be modeled as semantic games for IF sentences. In the process, we extend IF logic to include semantic games with chance moves and dub this extension stochastic IF logic. Finally, we use stochastic IF logic to analyze the Sleeping Beauty problem, leading to the conclusion that the thirders are correct while identifying the main error in the halfers' argument.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1701.03062

Recommendations

• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 7166988
• Languages for imperfect information
• A strategic perspective on IF games
• Semantic games with chance moves revisited: from IF logic to partial logic
• Independent choices and the interpretation of IF logic

zbMATH Keywords

independence-friendly logicIF logicMonty Hall problemSleeping Beauty problemlogic with imperfect informationstochastic IF logic

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Other nonclassical logic (03B60) Games involving topology, set theory, or logic (91A44) Axioms; other general questions in probability (60A05) Probabilistic games; gambling (91A60)

Cites Work

• Non-cooperative games
• Equilibrium points in n -person games
• Dependence logic. A new approach to independence friendly logic
• Independence-friendly logic. A game-theoretic approach
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• A course in game theory.
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Game theory. Translated from the Hebrew by Ziv Hellman and edited by Mike Borns
• On the interpretation of decision problems with imperfect recall
• Henkin quantifiers and complete problems
• Equilibrium semantics of languages of imperfect information
• Languages for imperfect information

Cited In (1)

• Dynamic logic versus GTS: a case study

This page was built for publication: A logical analysis of Monty Hall and Sleeping Beauty

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q1756594)