Transition from endemic behavior to eradication of malaria due to combined drug therapies: an agent-model approach

DOI10.1016/J.JTBI.2019.110030MaRDI QIDQ2010889zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors João Sequeira, Jorge Louçã, António M. Mendes, Pedro G. Lind

Publication date 28 November 2019

Published in Journal of Theoretical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.04353, http://hdl.handle.net/10071/20061

zbMATH Keywords

ivermectinmethylene blueagent modelsgametocytemiamalaria spreadingprimaquinetransmission control and mitigation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Medical epidemiology (92C60) Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: We introduce an agent-based model describing a susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) system of humans and mosquitoes to predict malaria epidemiological scenarios in realistic biological conditions. Emphasis is given to the transition from endemic behavior to eradication of malaria transmission induced by combined drug therapies acting on both the gametocytemia reduction and on the selective mosquito mortality during parasite development in the mosquito. Our mathematical framework enables to uncover the critical values of the parameters characterizing the effect of each drug therapy. Moreover, our results provide quantitative evidence of what is empirically known: interventions combining gametocytemia reduction through the use of gametocidal drugs, with the selective action of ivermectin during parasite development in the mosquito, may actively promote disease eradication in the long run. In the agent model, the main properties of human-mosquito interactions are implemented as parameters and the model is validated by comparing simulations with real data of malaria incidence collected in the endemic malaria region of Chimoio in Mozambique. Finally, we discuss our findings in light of current drug administration strategies for malaria prevention, that may interfere with human-to-mosquito transmission process.

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Cites work

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Cited in

(3)

• A simple agent-based model of malaria transmission investigating intervention methods and acquired immunity
• Learning, Misallocation, and Technology Adoption: Evidence from New Malaria Therapy in Tanzania
• Exploring the effects of awareness and time delay in controlling malaria disease propagation

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