Analysis of ``learn-as-you-go (LAGO) studies

DOI10.1214/20-AOS1978MaRDI QIDQ2039787zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Daniel Nevo, Judith J. Lok, Donna Spiegelman

Publication date 5 July 2021

Published in The Annals of Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.06310

zbMATH Keywords

adaptive designscouplingdependent samplepublic health

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Computational methods for problems pertaining to statistics (62-08) Asymptotic properties of parametric tests (62F05) Point estimation (62F10) Asymptotic properties of parametric estimators (62F12) Generalized linear models (logistic models) (62J12) Response surface designs (62K20) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10)

Abstract: In learn-as-you-go (LAGO) adaptive studies, the intervention is a complex package consisting of multiple components, and is adapted in stages during the study based on past outcome data. This design formalizes standard practice, and desires for practice, in public health intervention studies. An effective intervention package is sought, while minimizing intervention package cost. When analyzing data from a learn-as-you-go study, the interventions in later stages depend upon the outcomes in the previous stages, violating standard statistical theory. We develop methods for estimating the intervention effects in a LAGO study. We prove consistency and asymptotic normality using a novel coupling argument, ensuring the validity of the test for the hypothesis of no overall intervention effect. We develop a confidence set for the optimal intervention package and confidence bands for the success probabilities under alternative package compositions. We illustrate our methods in the BetterBirth Study, which aimed to improve maternal and neonatal outcomes among 157,689 births in Uttar Pradesh, India through a complex, multi-component intervention package.

Review text

This paper is a study on a complex multicomponent package. It calls Learn-As-you-GO (LAGO) adaptive studies. The authors describe the LAGO design. They propose a relevant estimator and study its asymptotic properties, hypothesis tests and confidence intervals. They present a simulation. They present an illustrative analysis of the BetterBirth Study, it applies to public health. They then discuss their results and future research.

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Cited in

(3)

• LAGO on the unit sphere
• LAGO
• Learn-as-you-GO (LAGO) trials: optimizing treatments and preventing trial failure through ongoing learning

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