Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in South Korea

DOI10.1007/S42952-021-00131-7MaRDI QIDQ2132033zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Kwangmin Lee, Seongil Jo, Jaeyong Lee

Publication date 27 April 2022

Published in Journal of the Korean Statistical Society (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.11991

zbMATH Keywords

Bayesian analysisinformative priorSARS-CoV-2seroprevalence

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10)

Abstract: In $2020$, Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency reported three rounds of surveys on seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies in South Korea. We analyze the seroprevalence surveys using a Bayesian method with an informative prior distribution on the seroprevalence parameter, and the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test. We construct the informative prior using the posterior distribution obtained from the clinical evaluation data based on the plaque reduction neutralization test. The constraint of the seroprevalence parameter induced from the known confirmed coronavirus 2019 cases can be imposed naturally in the proposed Bayesian model. We also prove that the confidence interval of the seroprevalence parameter based on the Rao's test can be the empty set, while the Bayesian method renders a reasonable interval estimator. As of the $30$th of October $2020$, the $95\mathrm{\%}$ credible interval of the estimated SARS-CoV-2 positive population does not exceed $307,448$, approximately $0.6\mathrm{\%}$ of the Korean population.

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Cites work

• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3052144 (Why is no real title available?)
• Mathematical statistics. Basic ideas and selected topics. Volume I

Cited in

(2)

• Estimation of Covid-19 prevalence from serology tests: a partial identification approach
• Estimation of world seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• Stan

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