Prevalence estimation and optimal classification methods to account for time dependence in antibody levels

DOI10.1016/J.JTBI.2022.111375MaRDI QIDQ2678764zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Prajakta Bedekar, Paul N. Patrone, Anthony José Kearsley

Publication date 24 January 2023

Published in Journal of Theoretical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.02127

zbMATH Keywords

antibody testingoptimizationprevalence estimationSARS-CoV-2time-dependent classification

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Medical applications (general) (92C50)

Abstract: Serology testing can identify past infection by quantifying the immune response of an infected individual providing important public health guidance. Individual immune responses are time-dependent, which is reflected in antibody measurements. Moreover, the probability of obtaining a particular measurement changes due to prevalence as the disease progresses. Taking into account these personal and population-level effects, we develop a mathematical model that suggests a natural adaptive scheme for estimating prevalence as a function of time. We then combine the estimated prevalence with optimal decision theory to develop a time-dependent probabilistic classification scheme that minimizes error. We validate this analysis by using a combination of real-world and synthetic SARS-CoV-2 data and discuss the type of longitudinal studies needed to execute this scheme in real-world settings.

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Cites work

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Cited in

(9)

• Optimal decision theory for diagnostic testing: minimizing indeterminate classes with applications to saliva-based SARS-CoV-2 antibody assays
• Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in South Korea
• Estimation of Covid-19 prevalence from serology tests: a partial identification approach
• Estimating decay curves of neutralizing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 infection
• Inference for serological surveys investigating past exposures to infections resulting in long-lasting immunity -- an approach using finite mixture models with concomitant information
• Classification under uncertainty: data analysis for diagnostic antibody testing
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 7730945 (Why is no real title available?)
• Optimal classification and generalized prevalence estimates for diagnostic settings with more than two classes
• Prevalence estimation methods for time-dependent antibody kinetics of infected and vaccinated individuals: a Markov chain approach

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