Classification under uncertainty: data analysis for diagnostic antibody testing

DOI10.1093/IMAMMB/DQAB007MaRDI QIDQ5157583zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Paul N. Patrone, Anthony José Kearsley

Publication date 19 October 2021

Published in Mathematical Medicine and Biology: A Journal of the IMA (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.10021

zbMATH Keywords

classificationoptimal decision theoryantibodySARS-CoV-2serology

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Medical applications (general) (92C50)

Abstract: Formulating accurate and robust classification strategies is a key challenge of developing diagnostic and antibody tests. Methods that do not explicitly account for disease prevalence and uncertainty therein can lead to significant classification errors. We present a novel method that leverages optimal decision theory to address this problem. As a preliminary step, we develop an analysis that uses an assumed prevalence and conditional probability models of diagnostic measurement outcomes to define optimal (in the sense of minimizing rates of false positives and false negatives) classification domains. Critically, we demonstrate how this strategy can be generalized to a setting in which the prevalence is unknown by either: (i) defining a third class of hold-out samples that require further testing; or (ii) using an adaptive algorithm to estimate prevalence prior to defining classification domains. We also provide examples for a recently published SARS-CoV-2 serology test and discuss how measurement uncertainty (e.g. associated with instrumentation) can be incorporated into the analysis. We find that our new strategy decreases classification error by up to a decade relative to more traditional methods based on confidence intervals. Moreover, it establishes a theoretical foundation for generalizing techniques such as receiver operating characteristics (ROC) by connecting them to the broader field of optimization.

Recommendations

• Optimal classification and generalized prevalence estimates for diagnostic settings with more than two classes
• Optimal decision theory for diagnostic testing: minimizing indeterminate classes with applications to saliva-based SARS-CoV-2 antibody assays
• Prevalence estimation and optimal classification methods to account for time dependence in antibody levels
• An analysis on the relationship between uncertainty and misclassification rate of classifiers
• A serial risk score approach to disease classification that accounts for accuracy and cost

Cited in

(5)

• Prevalence estimation and optimal classification methods to account for time dependence in antibody levels
• Optimal classification and generalized prevalence estimates for diagnostic settings with more than two classes
• Minimizing uncertainty in prevalence estimates
• Prevalence estimation methods for time-dependent antibody kinetics of infected and vaccinated individuals: a Markov chain approach
• Optimal decision theory for diagnostic testing: minimizing indeterminate classes with applications to saliva-based SARS-CoV-2 antibody assays

This page was built for publication: Classification under uncertainty: data analysis for diagnostic antibody testing

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q5157583)