Optimal classification and generalized prevalence estimates for diagnostic settings with more than two classes
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Publication:6157782
DOI10.1016/J.MBS.2023.108982zbMATH Open1519.92102arXiv2210.02366OpenAlexW4321202934MaRDI QIDQ6157782FDOQ6157782
Authors: Rayanne A. Luke, Anthony José Kearsley, Paul N. Patrone 
Publication date: 22 June 2023
Published in: Mathematical Biosciences (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: An accurate multiclass classification strategy is crucial to interpreting antibody tests. However, traditional methods based on confidence intervals or receiver operating characteristics lack clear extensions to settings with more than two classes. We address this problem by developing a multiclass classification based on probabilistic modeling and optimal decision theory that minimizes the convex combination of false classification rates. The classification process is challenging when the relative fraction of the population in each class, or generalized prevalence, is unknown. Thus, we also develop a method for estimating the generalized prevalence of test data that is independent of classification. We validate our approach on serological data with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) na"ive, previously infected, and vaccinated classes. Synthetic data are used to demonstrate that (i) prevalence estimates are unbiased and converge to true values and (ii) our procedure applies to arbitrary measurement dimensions. In contrast to the binary problem, the multiclass setting offers wide-reaching utility as the most general framework and provides new insight into prevalence estimation best practices.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.02366
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Cited In (4)
- Prevalence estimation and optimal classification methods to account for time dependence in antibody levels
- Classification under uncertainty: data analysis for diagnostic antibody testing
- Prevalence estimation methods for time-dependent antibody kinetics of infected and vaccinated individuals: a Markov chain approach
- Optimal decision theory for diagnostic testing: minimizing indeterminate classes with applications to saliva-based SARS-CoV-2 antibody assays
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