A classification of the dynamics of three-dimensional stochastic ecological systems
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Publication:2134286
DOI10.1214/21-AAP1699zbMATH Open1496.92129arXiv2004.00535OpenAlexW3014462230WikidataQ117218571 ScholiaQ117218571MaRDI QIDQ2134286FDOQ2134286
Sebastian J. Schreiber, Dang Hai Nguyen, Alexandru Hening
Publication date: 6 May 2022
Published in: The Annals of Applied Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: The classification of the long-term behavior of dynamical systems is a fundamental problem in mathematics. For both deterministic and stochastic dynamics specific classes of models verify Palis' conjecture: the long-term behavior is determined by a finite number of stationary distributions. In this paper we consider the classification problem for stochastic models of interacting species. For a large class of three-species, stochastic differential equation models, we prove a variant of Palis' conjecture: the long-term statistical behavior is determined by a finite number of stationary distributions and, generically, three general types of behavior are possible: 1) convergence to a unique stationary distribution that supports all species, 2) convergence to one of a finite number of stationary distributions supporting two or fewer species, 3) convergence to convex combinations of single species, stationary distributions due to a rock-paper-scissors type of dynamic. Moreover, we prove that the classification reduces to computing Lyapunov exponents (external Lyapunov exponents) that correspond to the average per-capita growth rate of species when rare. Our results stand in contrast to the deterministic setting where the classification is incomplete even for three-dimensional, competitive Lotka--Volterra systems. For these SDE models, our results also provide a rigorous foundation for ecology's modern coexistence theory (MCT) which assumes the external Lyapunov exponents determine long-term ecological outcomes.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.00535
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Population dynamics (general) (92D25) Ecology (92D40) Applications of stochastic analysis (to PDEs, etc.) (60H30)
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